Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Analysis - GTG - Genetic Technologies

Price($) 0.17
NTA ($) 0.04
P/NTA 4.28
Team 2.8
BurnPeriod 4.16
ProductPipe 0.2
ForeignMarket 6.8
Cash:Debt 12.7


This is a brief analysis. GTG aims to grab as much patents as it can for so called "junk DNA". It believes that the junk DNA has immense potential that has yet to be discovered. This belief does have some truth behind it. Already its business case of licensing these junk DNA for research is gaining traction - but profitability is another question.

Its product development pipeline is understandably small since that is not its business focus. It does have a service business in providing paternity tests in Hong Kong. Its Foreign Market exposure is above average with agreements in several continents.

Unlike most biotechs, GTG has debt but this is small compared to current cash. Assuming current burn rate continues, GTG may last another 4 quarters.

One negative aspect is GTG has a large number of shares - about 360 million. At current price, the P/NTA indicates it is quite expensive. The business case is unique, higher risk than most biotechs, but higher potential returns.

Recommendation: Worth consider buying if it drops and stabilises at 7cents.

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