Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com
Price($) 0.06
NTA ($) 0.04
P/NTA 1.57
Team 2.1
BurnPeriod 4.16
ProductPipe 15.9
ForeignMarket 7.8
Cash:Debt 20.07
GTG - Genetic Technologies was last analysed here at ozstock in June 27, 2007
(http://ozstock.blogspot.com/2007/06/analysis-gtg-genetic-technologies.html)
Since then a lot has changed for the company. We will start by looking at the figures, followed by a commentary of the company.
The company has a good record of maintaining very low debt. Although most startup biotechs have almost zero debt, relying purely on equity, GTG has ongoing operations and is not a startup. The amount of debt to finance its operations appears to be manageable. GTG has had strong cashflow from operations only for a brief period between Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 which was reflected in its share price which peaked at 55c compared to today's 5.6c. Its price to NTA is about 1.57 which is very favourable by Ozstock's standard while it has enough cash to burn for 4 quarters assuming cash burn is constant.
One of the original core focus of GTG is to license non-coding DNA and obtain licencing income. Its patent portfolio also covers international patents and hence the it reaches into foreign markets, hence the score 7.8. But the non-coding DNA licencing business has recently underperformed. Instead it appears GTG has diversified into related business of Cancer Screening, Animal genetic and fertility management and DNA Testing. This diversity has resulted in the Product Pipe score of 15.9. However, these businesses have yet to reverse the negative operational cash flow not to mention the significant annual losses. It has two research projects RareCellect and ImmunAid in which their developmental stages are not entirely clear.
To be frank, ozstock's interest in GTG was renewed by the recent announcement that GTG won the exclusive distribution agreement with Rosetta Genomics for Rosetta's microRNA testing. There are several key risks to consider in GTG, although its product pipe looks quite attractive. The risks include:
i) Products that have yet to provide convincing turnaround for the company.
ii) Board reshuffle resulting in a new combination of management team.
iii) Diversity of products may result in focussing on product with short term benefit at the expense of better long-term products.
iv) ability to remain a going-concern over the next 4 quarters.
Technical analysis alone has shown the share price hovering between 5c and 6c over the last few months, with the possibility of breaking the 6c in the next week. However, it would be prudent for the fundamental investor to wait for another 2 quarters of result to see evidence of a turnaround by the new management team.
Monday, November 9, 2009
ETFs: Buy Sell Indices and Metals on the ASX
Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com
Over nearly the last 2 years, mum and dad investors as well as professional investors may heve been burned by the GFC - Global Financial Crisis. For most, it is bad enough that the shares in companies crashes, but for others trading derivatives like options, futures and CFDs (Contract For Difference) the exposure to individual companies may have been worse.
For some companies the share prices not only crashed but the companies themselves collapse and investors (non-creditors) usually get nothing. But even in the doom and gloom, some companies or sectors fare better than others.
One way to mitigate company risks is to buy or sell stock indices, like the S&P 500. This is not about trading in leveraged derivatives like options or futures, but rather trading in actual units of the indices. This is called Exchange Traded Funds or ETF in short.
ETFs are not only for stock indices, they also exist for commodity indices. Below is a list of the ETFs available to buy and sell just like a regular unit of share, in the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), along with their respective ASX code.
Metal Commodities
GOLD Gold Bullion
ETPMAG Silver
ETPMPD Palladium
ETPMPT Platinum
State Street's Domestic Equity (started about 2001)
SFY SPDR S&P/ASX 50
STW SPDR S&P/ASX 200
SLF SPDR S&P/ASX Listed Property Funds
(iShares started about 2007)
International Emerging Nations Equity (as classified by iShares)
IZZ iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25
IBK iShares MSCI BRIC
IEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
IKO iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund
ITW iShares MSCI Taiwan
International Developed Nations Equity (as classified by iShares)
IVE iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund - European, Australasian and Far East markets
IHK iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund
IJP iShares MSCI Japan
ISG iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund
IAA iShares S&P Asia 50
IEU iShares S&P Europe 350
IOO iShares S&P Global 100 - multinationals $US5bn+ cap
IXI iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples
IXJ iShares S&P Global Healthcare
IXP iShares S&P Global Telecommunications
US ETFs (iShares)
IVV iShares S&P 500 US large cap stocks
IJH iShares S&P MidCap 400 US stocks
IJR iShares S&P SmallCap 600 US stocks
IRU iShares Russell 2000 US small cap stocks
(Vanguard started about 2009)
VAS Vanguard Australian Share Index ETF - top 300 Aust shares
VTS MSCI US Broad Market Index - overall US mkt
VEU Vanguard all world, ex US, Shares Index
Please let me know if you know of any ETFs trading in the ASx which are not listed here.
Note that a small amount of management fees may be build into the prices of these ETFs. In addition, foreign exchange rates also affect the prices. One example is today's Gold price is USD $942/oz but the ETFs GOLD share is AUD $114.6. However, ETFs seem to be as close as we can get to actually trading indices and commodities without actually trading the physical stuff.
Over nearly the last 2 years, mum and dad investors as well as professional investors may heve been burned by the GFC - Global Financial Crisis. For most, it is bad enough that the shares in companies crashes, but for others trading derivatives like options, futures and CFDs (Contract For Difference) the exposure to individual companies may have been worse.
For some companies the share prices not only crashed but the companies themselves collapse and investors (non-creditors) usually get nothing. But even in the doom and gloom, some companies or sectors fare better than others.
One way to mitigate company risks is to buy or sell stock indices, like the S&P 500. This is not about trading in leveraged derivatives like options or futures, but rather trading in actual units of the indices. This is called Exchange Traded Funds or ETF in short.
ETFs are not only for stock indices, they also exist for commodity indices. Below is a list of the ETFs available to buy and sell just like a regular unit of share, in the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), along with their respective ASX code.
Metal Commodities
GOLD Gold Bullion
ETPMAG Silver
ETPMPD Palladium
ETPMPT Platinum
State Street's Domestic Equity (started about 2001)
SFY SPDR S&P/ASX 50
STW SPDR S&P/ASX 200
SLF SPDR S&P/ASX Listed Property Funds
(iShares started about 2007)
International Emerging Nations Equity (as classified by iShares)
IZZ iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25
IBK iShares MSCI BRIC
IEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
IKO iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund
ITW iShares MSCI Taiwan
International Developed Nations Equity (as classified by iShares)
IVE iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund - European, Australasian and Far East markets
IHK iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund
IJP iShares MSCI Japan
ISG iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund
IAA iShares S&P Asia 50
IEU iShares S&P Europe 350
IOO iShares S&P Global 100 - multinationals $US5bn+ cap
IXI iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples
IXJ iShares S&P Global Healthcare
IXP iShares S&P Global Telecommunications
US ETFs (iShares)
IVV iShares S&P 500 US large cap stocks
IJH iShares S&P MidCap 400 US stocks
IJR iShares S&P SmallCap 600 US stocks
IRU iShares Russell 2000 US small cap stocks
(Vanguard started about 2009)
VAS Vanguard Australian Share Index ETF - top 300 Aust shares
VTS MSCI US Broad Market Index - overall US mkt
VEU Vanguard all world, ex US, Shares Index
Please let me know if you know of any ETFs trading in the ASx which are not listed here.
Note that a small amount of management fees may be build into the prices of these ETFs. In addition, foreign exchange rates also affect the prices. One example is today's Gold price is USD $942/oz but the ETFs GOLD share is AUD $114.6. However, ETFs seem to be as close as we can get to actually trading indices and commodities without actually trading the physical stuff.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Technical Analysis (Gann Charts) - Dow and All Ords Nervous
It's been some time since I last put up the monthly graphs and I just thought it was time to revisit both monthly and weekly graphs.
Things to note from the All Ords monthly graph:
i) x=80 is March 1991 and x=280 is Nov 2007
ii) The two gradients Gann +7.5 and Gann+10 has acted as an envelope for most of the 1990s decade.
iii) The period of early 2000s saw the irrational exuberance indicated by the large peak breakout of the envelope.
iv) The GFC made a low but supported by the Gann+7.5 line. The bull run from March 2009 until now saw it rising steeply from the Gann+7.5 and is now just over the Gann+10.
v) Big question is will the Gann+10 act as a resistance or will it break through? The key is to wait for a definite signal.
It is interesting to note that the Gann angles not only act as "Barriers" (ie resistance or support lines) but also as a "Tracker" where the graph actually fluctuates along it.
On the Weekly All Ords graph - If you have been following my blog, about two article ago, I wrote on the "Squaring of Time and Price of the Global Financial Crisis GFC" (Sep 2009). In that article I found that a factor of 52 was key to revealing the square relationship between time and price. So for this Weekly graph, you will notice that I changed the Gann-32 line into a Gann-50 line (tracking the GFC down) and added a Gann+50 line (tracking the post March 2009 recovery). I used 50 because I did some recalculation and the results were better than 52, not to mention 50 is a nice round number.
The result of these changes (compare with previous blogs) is that the new Gann+/-50 track the graph even better. We can use this graph to confirm a change in trend if the current bull run is to end.
On the weekly Dow Jones, we see the graph approaching the Gann-5 and there's no reason why it should not at least touch that line before any pullback. The intersection between Gann-5 and Gann+10 would be interesting to watch.
The recent bull run has gone on for almost 8 months. The bears have become bulls while the bulls have become a little nervous. Many are expecting a pullback of some degree. However, the weekly graphs based on the Gann angles shown here do not indicate any strong resistance soon, with the exception that the monthly All Ords just broke through and important resistance. The market has dropped in the last few days but the key is to wait for confirmation of trend if we are to jump in the opposite direction.
Things to note from the All Ords monthly graph:
i) x=80 is March 1991 and x=280 is Nov 2007
ii) The two gradients Gann +7.5 and Gann+10 has acted as an envelope for most of the 1990s decade.
iii) The period of early 2000s saw the irrational exuberance indicated by the large peak breakout of the envelope.
iv) The GFC made a low but supported by the Gann+7.5 line. The bull run from March 2009 until now saw it rising steeply from the Gann+7.5 and is now just over the Gann+10.
v) Big question is will the Gann+10 act as a resistance or will it break through? The key is to wait for a definite signal.
It is interesting to note that the Gann angles not only act as "Barriers" (ie resistance or support lines) but also as a "Tracker" where the graph actually fluctuates along it.
On the Weekly All Ords graph - If you have been following my blog, about two article ago, I wrote on the "Squaring of Time and Price of the Global Financial Crisis GFC" (Sep 2009). In that article I found that a factor of 52 was key to revealing the square relationship between time and price. So for this Weekly graph, you will notice that I changed the Gann-32 line into a Gann-50 line (tracking the GFC down) and added a Gann+50 line (tracking the post March 2009 recovery). I used 50 because I did some recalculation and the results were better than 52, not to mention 50 is a nice round number.
The result of these changes (compare with previous blogs) is that the new Gann+/-50 track the graph even better. We can use this graph to confirm a change in trend if the current bull run is to end.
On the weekly Dow Jones, we see the graph approaching the Gann-5 and there's no reason why it should not at least touch that line before any pullback. The intersection between Gann-5 and Gann+10 would be interesting to watch.
The recent bull run has gone on for almost 8 months. The bears have become bulls while the bulls have become a little nervous. Many are expecting a pullback of some degree. However, the weekly graphs based on the Gann angles shown here do not indicate any strong resistance soon, with the exception that the monthly All Ords just broke through and important resistance. The market has dropped in the last few days but the key is to wait for confirmation of trend if we are to jump in the opposite direction.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Notes on the Techniques of W.D. Gann
Notes on the Techniques of W.D. Gann
1. Special Number Sequences
1.1 The Full Circle 360
To some, there seems to be something magical about the circle in the way it stands for completeness and repeatability. But putting all mysticism aside, a circle has 360 degrees. Mathematically, there are many consequences that follow from the completeness and repeatability of a circle. Any high school student would have seen how a sine wave is traced out by a circle.
Sequence 1: Circle-16ths
A circle can have its angles equally divided into 4, 8 and 16 as
Degrees 0.0 22.5 45.0 67.5 90.0 112.5 135.0 157.5 180.0 202.5 225.0 247.5 270.0 292.5 315.0 337.5 360.0
Percentages 0.0 6.25 12.5 18.75 25.0 31.25 37.5 43.75 50.0 56.25 62.5 68.75 75.0 81.25 87.5 93.75 100.0
Sequence 2: Circle-12ths
A circle can have its angles equally divided into 3, 6, 12 as
Degrees 0.00 30.0 60.00 90.00 120.0 150.0 180.0 210.0 240.0 270.0 300.0 330.0 360.00
Percentages 0.00 8.33 16.67 25.00 33.33 41.67 50.00 58.33 66.67 75.00 83.33 91.67 100.00
Gann used the Circle-16ths sequence quite often. Why should the numbers in Circle-16ths be so special in the squaring of Price and Time? The reason is that the US dollar is divided into quarters, and not too long ago it had 1/8ths. The stocks in US are also denominated in fractions of 1/4, 1/8 etc. Hence it is natural to use this division. In angles terms, they are represented by 22.5, 45.0, 67.5, 90.0 degrees and so on.
1.2 Seasonal Time Periods
The year starts on March 21 which is the start of Spring Season. The important intervals are:
May 5 ends 1/8 or 6 1/2 weeks from March 21
Jun 21 ends 1/4 or 13 weeks from March 21
Jul 23 ends 1/3 or 17 weeks from March 21
Aug 5 ends 3/8 or 19 1/2 weeks from March 21
Sep 22 ends 1/2 or 26 weeks from March 21
Nov 8 ends 5/8 or 32 1/2 weeks from March 21
Nov 22 ends 2/3 or 35 weeks from March 21
Dec 21 ends 3/4 or 39 weeks from March 21
Feb 4 ends 7/8 or 45 1/2 weeks from March 21
Mar 20 ends 1 year or 52 weeks from March 21
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Technical Analysis - Summary of MACD
Below is a summary of the MACD technique to watch for confirmation in trends and possibly reversal in certain circumstances. The following is an excerpt from Andrew Page's article from Trading Tutors.
1. The MACD line signals upward momentum when in positive territory, and downward momentum when negative. Use this to validate an observed trend in price.
2. The MACD line can signal overbought and oversold positions. The further the line deviates away from zero, the more likely it is we will see a correction in price. Try drawing support and resistance lines for you MACD line to work out what levels typically represent overbought / oversold positions.
3. Buy signals are generated when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Buy signals are reinforced when the MACD line is in positive territory.
4. Sell signals are generated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. Sell signals are reinforced when the MACD line is negative.
5. Divergence between the price and MACD histogram signal weakness in the trend (loss of momentum). When you start to see the two diverge, look to the other MACD signals to confirm the end of a trend.
1. The MACD line signals upward momentum when in positive territory, and downward momentum when negative. Use this to validate an observed trend in price.
2. The MACD line can signal overbought and oversold positions. The further the line deviates away from zero, the more likely it is we will see a correction in price. Try drawing support and resistance lines for you MACD line to work out what levels typically represent overbought / oversold positions.
3. Buy signals are generated when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Buy signals are reinforced when the MACD line is in positive territory.
4. Sell signals are generated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. Sell signals are reinforced when the MACD line is negative.
5. Divergence between the price and MACD histogram signal weakness in the trend (loss of momentum). When you start to see the two diverge, look to the other MACD signals to confirm the end of a trend.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Squaring of Time and Price of the Global Financial Crisis GFC
Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com
Here is some quick calculations I tried after reading about Gann's technique of squaring Time and Price. It is quite amazing to see how the numbers fall into place. For both the Dow Jones and the All Ordinaries Indices, the calculations are below:
Market Peak at: 8 Oct 2007
Market Bottom at: 2 Mar 2009
Time Difference = 73 weeks
All Ordinaries
High: 6760.1
Low: 3111.7
Difference = 3648.4
Difference divide by 52 = 70.16
Dow Jones
High: 14093.08
Low: 6626.94
Difference = 7466.14
Difference divide by 52, then divide by 2 = 71.8
The Time difference between high and low is 73 weeks. The Price difference for the All Ords is 70.16 (weeks) and Dow Jones is 71.8 (weeks). Both indices are so close to 73 weeks. For those new to Gann analysis, 52 is one of those magic numbers. In Gann's Master Calculator, he often use the square of 52. The number 52 comes from the fact that there are 52 weeks in a year and the data are based on weekly data.
Essentially, the Price is being rescaled by a logical factor which is 52, or a multiple of 52 as in the case of the Dow Jones. I am quite surprised that the numbers turn out so close.
The above analysis was possible because we looked at the past and identified the high and low point. For the future, we cannot really see the next high which started from the low of 2 March 2009. However, we can use the same scaling and perhaps suggest where the current rally may turn down.
Here is some quick calculations I tried after reading about Gann's technique of squaring Time and Price. It is quite amazing to see how the numbers fall into place. For both the Dow Jones and the All Ordinaries Indices, the calculations are below:
Market Peak at: 8 Oct 2007
Market Bottom at: 2 Mar 2009
Time Difference = 73 weeks
All Ordinaries
High: 6760.1
Low: 3111.7
Difference = 3648.4
Difference divide by 52 = 70.16
Dow Jones
High: 14093.08
Low: 6626.94
Difference = 7466.14
Difference divide by 52, then divide by 2 = 71.8
The Time difference between high and low is 73 weeks. The Price difference for the All Ords is 70.16 (weeks) and Dow Jones is 71.8 (weeks). Both indices are so close to 73 weeks. For those new to Gann analysis, 52 is one of those magic numbers. In Gann's Master Calculator, he often use the square of 52. The number 52 comes from the fact that there are 52 weeks in a year and the data are based on weekly data.
Essentially, the Price is being rescaled by a logical factor which is 52, or a multiple of 52 as in the case of the Dow Jones. I am quite surprised that the numbers turn out so close.
The above analysis was possible because we looked at the past and identified the high and low point. For the future, we cannot really see the next high which started from the low of 2 March 2009. However, we can use the same scaling and perhaps suggest where the current rally may turn down.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Technical Analysis (Gann Charts) - Dow and All Ords Stumble
Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com
Here is the next monthly update on the Dow and All Ords using Gann angles to analyse future trend. Before looking into the charts, a quick check of the Seasonal Time Periods from Gann shows that we are nowhere close to any important dates. We are now between the August 5th and the September 22 dates (see future blog for complete Seasonal Time Periods)
Firstly, looking at the All Ords, the last 4 weeks has clearly broken the Gann +1/2 angle, question is if it will drop down. The past 4 weeks have also convincing broken the Gann -32 downtrend line and has pushed the 20 day moving average envelope to the limits. So this has been a strong trend that may retrace back to the Gann +1/2 but currently there is no evidence to suggest a stronger, longer pullback although the news seem to suddenly turn negative in the media.
Secondly, the Dow show a similar behaviour, in the past 4 weeks, it convincingly broke the Gann -10 downtrend angle. It may still plunge towards the intersection of the Gann -10 and Gann +10 angles but there is no current evidence to support this. It is also between the two major uptrend Gann angle of Gann +10, Gann +20. Should the upward trend continue, the Gann -5 downtrend angle may be a good reference to look for.
This week will see many Australian companies release their annual results. This will truly test the sentiment and so even though the trend is strongly upward over the last 4 weeks, the fundamentals may have a say this week.
Here is the next monthly update on the Dow and All Ords using Gann angles to analyse future trend. Before looking into the charts, a quick check of the Seasonal Time Periods from Gann shows that we are nowhere close to any important dates. We are now between the August 5th and the September 22 dates (see future blog for complete Seasonal Time Periods)
Firstly, looking at the All Ords, the last 4 weeks has clearly broken the Gann +1/2 angle, question is if it will drop down. The past 4 weeks have also convincing broken the Gann -32 downtrend line and has pushed the 20 day moving average envelope to the limits. So this has been a strong trend that may retrace back to the Gann +1/2 but currently there is no evidence to suggest a stronger, longer pullback although the news seem to suddenly turn negative in the media.
Secondly, the Dow show a similar behaviour, in the past 4 weeks, it convincingly broke the Gann -10 downtrend angle. It may still plunge towards the intersection of the Gann -10 and Gann +10 angles but there is no current evidence to support this. It is also between the two major uptrend Gann angle of Gann +10, Gann +20. Should the upward trend continue, the Gann -5 downtrend angle may be a good reference to look for.
This week will see many Australian companies release their annual results. This will truly test the sentiment and so even though the trend is strongly upward over the last 4 weeks, the fundamentals may have a say this week.
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