Sunday, December 21, 2014

Turn-Around Sectors by Delta M measure



Identifying stocks based on measure M, on stock Sectors.
- The measure M is a technical indicator timing kind of measure.
- In particular use M as a delta of a measure, say over a 5day or 1 week period.
- Rank all sectors according to measure M.
- Find the worst sector based on M.
- Now we try to find when a falling market is turning around.
- At the end of next week, perform the above analysis again.
- Compare the latest week's analysis to its previous week, based on the M delta measure.
- Check which sector has moved up from the bottom of the list, between one week and the next week.
- Pick the sector above and now look at the list of stocks in that sector.
- Choose the top performing stock of that sector to invest.

The sector, can also be replaced by Industry analysis.


Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Candlesticks - Reversal patterns

This article is a summary of some of the candlesticks pattern to look for to assist in trading. They are by no means the complete set of candle patterns.

Most charting software / applications will have the option to draw the Price vs Time stock graph in candlesticks. So there is no need to draw your own candlesticks.

The main component of the candlesticks are:
(assuming the data is collected daily)
- Highest point represent the highest price of the day
- Lowest point represent the lowest price of the day
- Rectangular Box - the top and bottom of the box represent the opening and closing price of the day. If the closing is at the top of the box, then the price finished the day higher, and vice versa.
- The colour of the box tell whether the closing is higher (green) or lower (red) than the opening price.
- In another scheme:
Green vs Red = Close higher vs lower than the close the day before.
Filled vs Unfilled = Close is higher vs lower than when it opened




Candlesticks are good at providing signals of trend reversal. The various patterns described here are such indicators of trend reversals.

Doji - this is when the opening and closing price is almost the same. The candlestick has almost NO rectangular body. If the trend has been a solid body, then became doji, perhaps it may change direction.

The gravestone doji is a bearish reversal. This happens at the peak where the price reaches high up but comes back down at the close. Wait for confirmation on the next day after the gravestone doji.
Thumbnail for version as of 10:51, 18 August 2007
The dragonfly doji is a bullish reversal. This happens at the bottome where the price reaches further down but comes back down at the close, indicating downward pressure has ceased. Wait for confirmation on the next day after the dragonfly doji.




Spinning Top - a very small body rectangle, with long tail to one side. When there is large movement, there will be a large body. When a body is small such as the case of the spinning top, it means the bears and the bulls are about to be equal in strength. Hence the previous strong trend, is now losing momentum. The doji is the extreme case of this.

Hammer - when the rectangle is at the upper or lower end of the candlestick, with long tail in other direction. For down market turning up, the hammer is upright, meaning the head is on top. For an up market turning down, the hammer head is at the bottom, and the tail is upward.

The Hanging Man - has the same shape as the hammer. The hanging man with head on top, like the hammer. The difference is that the hanging man occurs the market top and indicates it may turn down. Similarly the Hanging Man with the head at the bottom would suggest the market bottom may start to turn up.


Engulfing Pattern - when the next candlestick body is larger than the previous candlestick body AND the colour changes. This indicate an abrupt change in trend.

More to come: 

Harami Patterns

Piercing and Cloud Patterns

Soldiers and Crowns








Monday, November 24, 2014

Money Mag Nov 2014

List of stocks regarded as good quality:

MFG - Magellan
SRX - Sirtex
TNE - Technology One
BRG - Breville
IFM - Infomedia
CAJ - Capital Health
NCK - Nick Scali
BAL - Bellamy's
TWD - Tamawood
CZZ - Capilano Family
LGD - Legend corp

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Stocks to Watch 27 Oct

17 Nov 2015
Surging Stocks
OVH - Onevue Holdings (Financials)
BLK - Blackham Resources (Gold, Matilda Project in WA, Recent coverage initiated by The Sophisticated Investor)
GEM - G8 Education



28 Oct 2015
Bellamy's
TPG


27 Oct 2015
ahd
evn **
web
rrl
slk


31 Aug 2015
Super:
ALF

Stocks:
MFF
AHY



16 Aug 2015
UXC
VEI
CZZ



8 June 2015
EVN - Evolution Mining
ELD - Elders Limited
MBL - Melbourne IT
RKN - Reckon


15 May 2015
APE - AP Eagers
MLX - Metals X
OZL - Oz Minerals
JBH  - JB Hifi
CSV - CSG Ltd
CMP - Compumedics


24 Mar 2015
NAN.AX - Nanosonics (Healthcare Equipment)- flat almost nil earnings, rising price momentum, price at 3mth peak, BUY
NCK.AX - Nick Scali (Consumer Discretionary)- growing earnings, rising price momentum, not peak, waiting for volume confrimation
RIC.AX - Ridley Corp - Consumer Staples - flat low earnings 0.07, rising price momentum, slightly below peak, recent high volume, BUY



14 Feb 2015
CSR - CSR
CCP - Credit Corp
MGR - Mirvac Group



6 Dec 2014
CSR  - watch for it to cross $3.86
Air New Zealand AIZ - buy 2.22, stop 2.11 - 909 units
Alumina AWC - watch that it breaks the 1.73 levle


27  Oct 2014
Below is a simple notes to self about which shares to buy.
GHC
CNU
MTU
SHV
MNY

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Finding Earnings Growth Stocks

Strategies for finding Earnings Growth Stock for Australian Market using VectorVest

The following is based on the Strategy of the Week 22Aug2014 " Earnings Growth the Golden Touch". However, there have been modification applied here for Australian stocks and also the use of the Midas Touch together.

The stocks are selected using the various filters and Sort order in VectorVest
Then those with B recommendation are considered.
Further, the Midas Touch analysis is used to narrow down the list of stocks.
The resultant stocks are given for each category.


Growth > 20
Sort: VST*RT*CI
Comment: strong growth, strong VST score, good price trend, and good confidence
Gives Capillano Honey CZZ
27 Oct 14: VTG  MNF  DMP  MTU  GHC  MNY SHV  AAC  GHC


Strong Growth Stock
Recommendation = B
Sort: GRT*RT Desc
Gives Orocobre Limited ORE.AX
27 Oct 14: VTG  FRM


Stock Viewer
Recommendation = B
Sort: GRT
Gives Contango Micro CTN, Nanosonics NAN,
27 Oct 14: GHL  FRM  GHC   SHV  NEA VTG  TPM  


Searches Prudent: Ruler Stocks
GRT >= 14
RS >= 1.4
Sort: RS*GRT
Gives Greencross GXL, Corporate Travel Mgmt CTD
27 Oct 14: MNF  CTD


RV 1.75 above Triple bond
RS - meet or exceeds earning expectations
RT - trend 

Friday, July 25, 2014

Stock to watch 24 Jul 2014

Stocks to watch

24 July 2014
CompanyName Symbol Price GRT % EPS EY P/E DIV DY % Volume Industry Sector
HFA Holdings HFA.AX 1.405 30 0.15 10.68 9.37 0.07 4.98 217915 Financials(Diversified) Financials
Astro Japan Property Group AJA.AX 4.15 37 0.81 19.52 5.12 0.14 3.37 33360 Financials(RealEstate) Financials
Sundance Energy Aus SEA.AX 1.34 26 0.12 8.96 11.17 0 0 3016161 Energy (Energy) Energy
Infomedia LTD IFM.AX 0.845 19 0.04 4.73 21.13 0.03 3.55 401639 InfoTech(Software&Svcs) Information Technology
Altona Mining Limited AOH.AX 0.23 27 0.01 4.35 23 0 0 1193257 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng) Materials

Stop Prices:
HFA - $1.13
AJA - $3.88
SEA - $1.20
AOH -$0.20
NST - $1.40


28 Aug 2014

CompanyName Symbol Price GRT EPS EY PE DY% Volume
Corporate Travel Mgmt CTD.AX 7.500 17 0.28 3.6 27.78 1.47 168041
Northern Star Rsrcs NST.AX 1.755 28 0.25 14.25 7.02 2.28 2844702
GBST Hldgs GBT.AX 4.000 29 0.21 5.25 19.05 2.25 36570
Villa World grp VLW.AX 2.270 33 0.25 11.01 9.08 2.64 350182
Contango Micro CTN.AX 1.185 45 0.12 10.13 9.08 7.59 265218


27 Oct 2014

DMP
TPM
IFM
LLC
MTU


Monday, July 14, 2014

ASX 300 Log

Start $50,000
Loss 1% = $500
Brokerage = $15

14 July
Buy TSE $1.27    2564 units  Stop $1.075
Buy SGM $10.04  562 units  Stop $9.15
Buy PAN  $0.915  2857 units  Stop $0.74


18 Aug
Buy NST $1.82    2500 units   Stop $1.62

23 Aug
Dominos DMP Stop 22.80
CSG LTD CSV  Stop 1.10
Orocobre  ORE  stop 2.80
Maca MLD Stop 1.995
Corporate Travel Mgt CTD  Stop 6.41
Transfield Services TSE  Stop 1.25


27 Oct 2014
DMP  Stop $7.34
TPM
IFM
LLC
MTU


12 Jan 2015
Some resurgent Gold stocks as well as other sharp increase stocks
IGO - e
NST - e
LLC - e
NCM
AQG

The more stable and strong stocks are:
MFG -e
RHC
QAN
ABP
AJA -e

The "-e" also indicate good forward earnings expectations.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

When to sell shares - 7 tips

Every individual circumstances is different. This is just a very general tips about when to sell shares.

i) Price below (30-40day) Moving Average
ii) Technical metric is below level
iii) Recommendation (from various sources) is SELL
iv) Price below trend line
v) Never give back more than half your profit
vi) Never ignore Confirm Down signal
x) sell share outright


Sunday, January 5, 2014

Technical Analysis - Biotechs of Jan 2014

Several commentaries have indicated that the biotechnology sector has done well in 2013. In the ASX, there are 68 "Lifesciences and Biotechnology" companies and 54 "Equipment and Services" companies in the Healthcare sector. This is a relative small list of companies yet time consuming if we are to analyse individually.

Previously this blog has presented a few metrics to analyse biotech companies including:
- looking at qualifications of management, eg number of PhDs
- the number of products in Stage II or Stage III trials
- the number of quarters the current cash would last until

All these are good metrics, but from experience, biotechs have a tendency to crash on any news of setbacks on clinical trials including delays, even though the technology actually works.

Hence in the quick approach taken here is to just look at the price action of the stocks mainly and forget the fundamentals. In addition to the price, stocks with extremely low volume of trades are ignored. Those with relatively high dollar prices are ignored. The main price must have a good trend over the last month, this is of course very subjective.

So here are the biotech stocks that has been increasing nicely in recent times.


Sector: Healthcare 
Industry: Lifesciences and Biotechnology

SIP - Sigma Pharmaceutical
SUD - Suda Ltd
QRX - QRxPharma Ltd
MYX - Mayne Pharma Group
NDL - Neural Discovery
ADO - Anteo Diagnostics
PBT - Prana Biotech
OBJ - OBJ Ltd
BXN - Bioxyne Ltd
BLT - Biotech Biopharma Ltd




Sector: Healthcare 
Industry: Equipment and Services

ELX - Ellex Medical Laser
FPH - Fisher and Paykel
SDI - SDI Ltd
ANN - Ansell
SHL - Sonic Healthcare
AHZ - Admedus Ltd
DRG - Draig Resources Ltd
UNS - Unilife Corp