2nd quarter update.
Burn-period = 8.89
Receipts in the second quarter fell very slightly from $139k to $132k. Operational cost almost halved compared to last quarter. The effect of this is the burn-out period improved from 5.10 previously to 8.89. Most of the other metrics remain the same as is business fundamentals. The same recommendation applies.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Company Brief - SEN - Senetas - 070123
Company Brief - SEN - Senetas
I've been following Senetas over a month and it seems that the price has plunged due to various uncertainties, such as previous first quarter profits, its US distributor (investigated for stock options and accounting practices) and the recent restructure / capital raising. The negative sentiment does not seem to stem from their previous annual results.
Given their current price of 30cents and EPS of 2.02cents at FY2006, this is a PE of 15 for a hi-tech company which is profitable and positive cashflow.
NEWS - a joint venture is announced with a French company on Quantum Cryptography. This may sound new and should be exciting but in the US there is a company call MagiQ which is in this area. Nonetheless the market is new, and there are only a few players.
Good points include overseas market penetration with clients in US, Middle East and JV with French company. Directors mostly have law background - not sure if this is advantage - but have personnel with IT experience (incl CEO). Product range also exist, hence it does not rely on single product.
Recommendation: Speculative buy.
I've been following Senetas over a month and it seems that the price has plunged due to various uncertainties, such as previous first quarter profits, its US distributor (investigated for stock options and accounting practices) and the recent restructure / capital raising. The negative sentiment does not seem to stem from their previous annual results.
Given their current price of 30cents and EPS of 2.02cents at FY2006, this is a PE of 15 for a hi-tech company which is profitable and positive cashflow.
NEWS - a joint venture is announced with a French company on Quantum Cryptography. This may sound new and should be exciting but in the US there is a company call MagiQ which is in this area. Nonetheless the market is new, and there are only a few players.
Good points include overseas market penetration with clients in US, Middle East and JV with French company. Directors mostly have law background - not sure if this is advantage - but have personnel with IT experience (incl CEO). Product range also exist, hence it does not rely on single product.
Recommendation: Speculative buy.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Biotech Valuation Indices
A brief summary of the indices used in the analysis of biotech stocks.
Updated - the date any update to this analysis is done
Company - Stock code of company
Price($) - Market price of stock at date of analysis
NTA ($) - Net Tangible Assets = Total Assets - Intellectual property and other intangibles.
P/NTA - Ratio of Price to NTA - a value of 3 or below is considered underpriced and worth buying. A value of 9 or above is definitely not worth buying.
Team - the quality of management is represented by this index. It is based on a points system that rates the directors on their qualifications. (see key below) - over 5.0 is good.
BurnPeriod - the number of quarters left before cash runs out, based on the previous quarters cash burn rate. Over 4 quarters is fair. Over 8 quarters is worth investing.
ProductPipe - the stage of the product development ranging from pre-clinical tests to commercialization. Over a value of 5.0 is a good sign.
ForeignMarket - Companies with products that sell internationally are more highly rated. (see key below). Over a value of 3 is a good sign.
Cash:Debt - the ratio of cash to debt of the company.
Key to Index Ratings
Product
Phase 1 = 1
Phase 2 = 2
Phase 3 = 3
Market Approved = 4
In Market =5
Team
Prof = 1.5
PhD = 1.0
Master = 0.8
Hons = 0.7
MBA = 0.6
Biotech Exp (10year) = 0.5
Foreign Market Penetration
Plan to Enter = 0.5
Just Entered = 0.9
1-3 years = 1.5
Over3 years = 2.0
The indices listed above are aimed to highlight the fundamentals of the company and is used to reach a decision on whether to buy a certain stock. The philosophy is not to determine a numerical value for the company but rather a decision whether to buy a certain stock or not. It does not explicitly provide a sell decision because we implicitly assume that when we buy a biotech stock, we will not sell it until it doubles in price at the very least.
The Team index is scored based on scientific qualifications, since this analysis is focussed on biotech stocks. MBA is also recognized here. Note that this scheme of rating is not accurate as there are those which contribute significantly to their companies even though they do not have high scientific qualifications. However, this rating is adopted because this analysis rates the management without personally meeting the management team.
Not all biotech companies develop drugs which need to go through the whole clinical testing phase. In such cases, the Product index is still used but with each product judged in terms of their development and their timeframe to commercialization.
Updated - the date any update to this analysis is done
Company - Stock code of company
Price($) - Market price of stock at date of analysis
NTA ($) - Net Tangible Assets = Total Assets - Intellectual property and other intangibles.
P/NTA - Ratio of Price to NTA - a value of 3 or below is considered underpriced and worth buying. A value of 9 or above is definitely not worth buying.
Team - the quality of management is represented by this index. It is based on a points system that rates the directors on their qualifications. (see key below) - over 5.0 is good.
BurnPeriod - the number of quarters left before cash runs out, based on the previous quarters cash burn rate. Over 4 quarters is fair. Over 8 quarters is worth investing.
ProductPipe - the stage of the product development ranging from pre-clinical tests to commercialization. Over a value of 5.0 is a good sign.
ForeignMarket - Companies with products that sell internationally are more highly rated. (see key below). Over a value of 3 is a good sign.
Cash:Debt - the ratio of cash to debt of the company.
Key to Index Ratings
Product
Phase 1 = 1
Phase 2 = 2
Phase 3 = 3
Market Approved = 4
In Market =5
Team
Prof = 1.5
PhD = 1.0
Master = 0.8
Hons = 0.7
MBA = 0.6
Biotech Exp (10year) = 0.5
Foreign Market Penetration
Plan to Enter = 0.5
Just Entered = 0.9
1-3 years = 1.5
Over3 years = 2.0
The indices listed above are aimed to highlight the fundamentals of the company and is used to reach a decision on whether to buy a certain stock. The philosophy is not to determine a numerical value for the company but rather a decision whether to buy a certain stock or not. It does not explicitly provide a sell decision because we implicitly assume that when we buy a biotech stock, we will not sell it until it doubles in price at the very least.
The Team index is scored based on scientific qualifications, since this analysis is focussed on biotech stocks. MBA is also recognized here. Note that this scheme of rating is not accurate as there are those which contribute significantly to their companies even though they do not have high scientific qualifications. However, this rating is adopted because this analysis rates the management without personally meeting the management team.
Not all biotech companies develop drugs which need to go through the whole clinical testing phase. In such cases, the Product index is still used but with each product judged in terms of their development and their timeframe to commercialization.
Analysis - BOS - Biosignal
(See Biotech Valuation Indices)
Updated 11/01/07
Company BOS
Price($) 0.16
NTA ($) 0.05
P/NTA 3.27
Team 5.6
BurnPeriod 5.1
ProductPipe 6.6
ForeignMarket 1.5
Cash:Debt Inf
Biosignal - company with a unique technology platform. Biosignal is able to synthesise a compound found in seaweed in Botany Bay that has the ability to prevent or disrupt the formation of biofilms without killing the bacteria that produces it.
Biofilms can cause human bacterial infection, they may form plague on teeth, they are the slime in ponds or the gunk in the drain. Biofilm form on surfaces expose to water and creates an environment for bacteria growth. They can also build up on the bottom of ships and vessels.
Biosignal's compound is a platform technology because it has many application, such as marine anti-fouling paint and in healthcare. Biosignal aims first to target healthcare by incorporating its compound into contact lenses. Other medical applications are numerous. One of the challenge for management is to cleverly identify one from these many applications that would generate return to investors quickly and significantly.
Its team index of 5.6 is considered very good with management composed of highly qualified people. The foreign market index of 1.5 is low. Biosignal has been in negotiations with a few contacts overseas (US-contact lenses, Japan and Europe-medical devices) but this is yet to mature. The recent investment made by Japan's Restoration Company and the inclusion of entrepreneur Prof Gunter Pauli indicates confidence in Biosignal. Locally, BHP and Santos are collaborating with Biosignal in their interest to apply the technology to their gas pipelines.
The product index of 6.6 is quite high among biotechs. Some applications such as the marine anti-fouling paint and contact lenses do not require the same stringent clinical trials as other drug development pipeline, but the contact lense for example still needs to go through safety trials. Effectively, the marine paint and contact lenses are assumed to be effectively in Phase II, with commercialization expected in 2007 and 2008 respectively.
In terms of cash flow, the last 3 quarters of 2006 had receipts of over $400k, but the previous quarter dropped to over $100k. Estimating cash burn, it can survive for another 5 quarters assuming similar cash burn rate. Hence this survival rate is not too bad but close attention to the next few quarters is warranted.
The company is debt free. The Price to Net Tangible Assets is 3.27 times. Comparing with other biotech companies, P/NTA index of anything below 3 is undervalued, and 3.27 is also reckoned to be on the not pricey side.
The price has dropped from about 19c in Sept and starting to stabilise at 16c now.
Recommendation: Buy when price stabilise or reaches 15.5c
* Recommendation assumes no significant unforseen negative changes.
Updated 11/01/07
Company BOS
Price($) 0.16
NTA ($) 0.05
P/NTA 3.27
Team 5.6
BurnPeriod 5.1
ProductPipe 6.6
ForeignMarket 1.5
Cash:Debt Inf
Biosignal - company with a unique technology platform. Biosignal is able to synthesise a compound found in seaweed in Botany Bay that has the ability to prevent or disrupt the formation of biofilms without killing the bacteria that produces it.
Biofilms can cause human bacterial infection, they may form plague on teeth, they are the slime in ponds or the gunk in the drain. Biofilm form on surfaces expose to water and creates an environment for bacteria growth. They can also build up on the bottom of ships and vessels.
Biosignal's compound is a platform technology because it has many application, such as marine anti-fouling paint and in healthcare. Biosignal aims first to target healthcare by incorporating its compound into contact lenses. Other medical applications are numerous. One of the challenge for management is to cleverly identify one from these many applications that would generate return to investors quickly and significantly.
Its team index of 5.6 is considered very good with management composed of highly qualified people. The foreign market index of 1.5 is low. Biosignal has been in negotiations with a few contacts overseas (US-contact lenses, Japan and Europe-medical devices) but this is yet to mature. The recent investment made by Japan's Restoration Company and the inclusion of entrepreneur Prof Gunter Pauli indicates confidence in Biosignal. Locally, BHP and Santos are collaborating with Biosignal in their interest to apply the technology to their gas pipelines.
The product index of 6.6 is quite high among biotechs. Some applications such as the marine anti-fouling paint and contact lenses do not require the same stringent clinical trials as other drug development pipeline, but the contact lense for example still needs to go through safety trials. Effectively, the marine paint and contact lenses are assumed to be effectively in Phase II, with commercialization expected in 2007 and 2008 respectively.
In terms of cash flow, the last 3 quarters of 2006 had receipts of over $400k, but the previous quarter dropped to over $100k. Estimating cash burn, it can survive for another 5 quarters assuming similar cash burn rate. Hence this survival rate is not too bad but close attention to the next few quarters is warranted.
The company is debt free. The Price to Net Tangible Assets is 3.27 times. Comparing with other biotech companies, P/NTA index of anything below 3 is undervalued, and 3.27 is also reckoned to be on the not pricey side.
The price has dropped from about 19c in Sept and starting to stabilise at 16c now.
Recommendation: Buy when price stabilise or reaches 15.5c
* Recommendation assumes no significant unforseen negative changes.
Friday, January 12, 2007
Sector Watch 070112 - Biotech
Since the new year 2007, there has been an obvious (to me at least) increased trading in biotech stocks sometimes FNKMR - for no known market reason (See Glossary). Here are a few reasons for this, which also meant to encourage caution:
- The Australian index is at all time highs despite recent corrections. This has been led by the resource boom of over 3 years followed by the steady growth of bank stocks. The market knows things have been over-priced and companies trading below their value are very difficult to find to invest in. Yet there is a continued growth in cash (eg from superannuation) looking for investment. Hence one of the sectors that have been shunned by main line investors is biotech. This is where money is starting to flow in.
- As an observer and analyst of biotech stocks over the last few years, I see the current increased trading to be exciting yet cautious. This beginning of a mini-boom in biotech stocks is going to make this sector even more volatile if recent trading pattern continues. The recent trading pattern in which some biotech stocks surge FNKMR - stocks are pushed up without any significant development in their product pipeline, changes in financial status or corporate activity.
- This serves to warn not to follow the market into biotech stocks. The serious biotech investor is encouraged to look at fundamentals (which is what this blogsite intends to provide) as well as technical analysis to see when to buy-in or sell-out.
- When an article in the news media picks up the trading patterns (of increased biotech stocks), you know that the pattern has already occurred and the news is history.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/biotechs-have-been-best-performers-since-1986/2007/01/11/1168105113648.html
- Don't be fooled - though the article claims that "biotech stocks are the best performers since 1986", it is true only if you picked the right one. From personal experience a gain of 200% or 300% is possible but so is a plunge to below 20%. Incidentally, the worst of my hi-tech/IT stocks have plunged to 0% or thereabouts, but I have not experienced such levels with biotech stocks. Once again - understand the company and its business and not follow the herd.
Below is a sample of stocks in my watchlist that have surged without good reasons:
CYN - 41c (intraday high 0.46 11Jan07) - between 32c to 36c last 3 months, even lower before that. Its involved in cord tissue banking business. I believe this to be a good stock and would buy if it is 30c.
CUV - from 48c to 81c from dec06 to Jan07 - it appears to be a turnaround story since 2006 but no specific news in Dec to warrant the surge. It develops compound agains UV-related skin disorders. May be covered by Tolhurst Noall.
BoD - from 9c Nov06 to 13c Jan07 - medical devices and implants
some of the stocks which have surged following product development are:
NRT - move to Ph3 Ovarian Cancer drug Nov06, US patent granted Dec06, from $2.60 to $3.10 within Jan 07
PYC - 30c Nov06 to 50c Dec06 - stroke drugs found new application
MBP - completes Ph2B obesity drug (results not fully analysed) - from 40c Oct06 to 1.10 Jan07 -
PLT - 10c Dec06 to 40c Jan07 - product (cervical cancer drug) penetrated China and South Korea - major turnaround for this embattled company which was 5c in Jul06.
MSB - clearance for Ph2 adult stem cell trials - $1.2 0Oct06 to $2.20 Jan06
PGL - $3.50 Nov06 to $5.50 Jan07 - announce liver cancer drug going to Ph3
The companies listed here may be overvalued or with the success of drugs factored into the price already.
- The Australian index is at all time highs despite recent corrections. This has been led by the resource boom of over 3 years followed by the steady growth of bank stocks. The market knows things have been over-priced and companies trading below their value are very difficult to find to invest in. Yet there is a continued growth in cash (eg from superannuation) looking for investment. Hence one of the sectors that have been shunned by main line investors is biotech. This is where money is starting to flow in.
- As an observer and analyst of biotech stocks over the last few years, I see the current increased trading to be exciting yet cautious. This beginning of a mini-boom in biotech stocks is going to make this sector even more volatile if recent trading pattern continues. The recent trading pattern in which some biotech stocks surge FNKMR - stocks are pushed up without any significant development in their product pipeline, changes in financial status or corporate activity.
- This serves to warn not to follow the market into biotech stocks. The serious biotech investor is encouraged to look at fundamentals (which is what this blogsite intends to provide) as well as technical analysis to see when to buy-in or sell-out.
- When an article in the news media picks up the trading patterns (of increased biotech stocks), you know that the pattern has already occurred and the news is history.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/biotechs-have-been-best-performers-since-1986/2007/01/11/1168105113648.html
- Don't be fooled - though the article claims that "biotech stocks are the best performers since 1986", it is true only if you picked the right one. From personal experience a gain of 200% or 300% is possible but so is a plunge to below 20%. Incidentally, the worst of my hi-tech/IT stocks have plunged to 0% or thereabouts, but I have not experienced such levels with biotech stocks. Once again - understand the company and its business and not follow the herd.
Below is a sample of stocks in my watchlist that have surged without good reasons:
CYN - 41c (intraday high 0.46 11Jan07) - between 32c to 36c last 3 months, even lower before that. Its involved in cord tissue banking business. I believe this to be a good stock and would buy if it is 30c.
CUV - from 48c to 81c from dec06 to Jan07 - it appears to be a turnaround story since 2006 but no specific news in Dec to warrant the surge. It develops compound agains UV-related skin disorders. May be covered by Tolhurst Noall.
BoD - from 9c Nov06 to 13c Jan07 - medical devices and implants
some of the stocks which have surged following product development are:
NRT - move to Ph3 Ovarian Cancer drug Nov06, US patent granted Dec06, from $2.60 to $3.10 within Jan 07
PYC - 30c Nov06 to 50c Dec06 - stroke drugs found new application
MBP - completes Ph2B obesity drug (results not fully analysed) - from 40c Oct06 to 1.10 Jan07 -
PLT - 10c Dec06 to 40c Jan07 - product (cervical cancer drug) penetrated China and South Korea - major turnaround for this embattled company which was 5c in Jul06.
MSB - clearance for Ph2 adult stem cell trials - $1.2 0Oct06 to $2.20 Jan06
PGL - $3.50 Nov06 to $5.50 Jan07 - announce liver cancer drug going to Ph3
The companies listed here may be overvalued or with the success of drugs factored into the price already.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Sector Watch 070111 - CSG and Wine
Coal Seam Gas (CSG)
====================
What is it?
- is a natural gas formed as a by-product during the coalification process whereby organic matter is turned into coal.
- Coal seam gas (CSG) is usually methane in composition and is typically attached to the coal along its natural fractures and cleats. This gas is released when pressure on the coal seam is reduced, usually after water is removed from the seam.
(http://www.nrw.qld.gov.au/mines/petroleum_gas/csg/index.html)
Which Companies ?
QGC - Queensland Gas Co
AOE - Arrow Energy
SHG - Sunshine Gas
WCL - Westside Corporation
Performance? I started watching CSG 2 years ago, when the industry is still in its infancy. Even now, in terms of production, CSG is still a new source of gas, breaking into the market. However, recently it has attracted wider attention. I followed QGC and AOE when they were 40c and 30c respectively. These days they are trading at 1.35 and 1.20 - a return of 300% to 400% if an investment was made 2 years ago. Look at QGC and AOE amount of probable reserves - this may be an indicator to compare with other newer CSG companies.
QGC was recently pursued by Santos but made a deal with AGL instead. The pursuit by Santos has pushed QGC from 90c to $1.44. Interest generated by the takeover potential has also boosted AOE from 60C to 1.20. Currently QGC and AOE may have premium included in their prices.
Recommendation: QGC Hold, AOE Hold
SHG has potential and is not purely a CSG company - diversification may be its advantage here. It has not grown too much yet so there may still be value. WCL is just listed an operates on farmed out property from SHG. The farming out process may be in favour for SHG because it mitigates exploration and operational risks. If WCL is successful, SHG benefits without significant operational cost.
Detailed analysis on SHG is not done yet but is encouraged to compare its probable / proven reserves with QGC and AOE.
Recommendation: SHG Buy at 33c, Target 60c by 2008.
Wine Glut
==========
The wine glut caused by over-planting / harvest of grapes may have led to significant drop in wine prices and hence winery stocks recently. However there are a few positives about this wine glut to note:
- so far the grape harvest does not seem to be affected by the severe drought in Aust.
- low cost wine means it is available to a broader consumer base. When the price picks up (and it will) it may benefit from a bigger market.
- as the grape planting reduces - due to drought or farmers leaving the sector (poor performance recently) - the price of wine will pick up.
- in the present low priced environment, Aust wine is expanding its export market with significant growth to China (rising middle class) and also to the US (which may overtake Britain as our export destination). (Src: http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21029613-462,00.html)
Watch: CWT
====================
What is it?
- is a natural gas formed as a by-product during the coalification process whereby organic matter is turned into coal.
- Coal seam gas (CSG) is usually methane in composition and is typically attached to the coal along its natural fractures and cleats. This gas is released when pressure on the coal seam is reduced, usually after water is removed from the seam.
(http://www.nrw.qld.gov.au/mines/petroleum_gas/csg/index.html)
Which Companies ?
QGC - Queensland Gas Co
AOE - Arrow Energy
SHG - Sunshine Gas
WCL - Westside Corporation
Performance? I started watching CSG 2 years ago, when the industry is still in its infancy. Even now, in terms of production, CSG is still a new source of gas, breaking into the market. However, recently it has attracted wider attention. I followed QGC and AOE when they were 40c and 30c respectively. These days they are trading at 1.35 and 1.20 - a return of 300% to 400% if an investment was made 2 years ago. Look at QGC and AOE amount of probable reserves - this may be an indicator to compare with other newer CSG companies.
QGC was recently pursued by Santos but made a deal with AGL instead. The pursuit by Santos has pushed QGC from 90c to $1.44. Interest generated by the takeover potential has also boosted AOE from 60C to 1.20. Currently QGC and AOE may have premium included in their prices.
Recommendation: QGC Hold, AOE Hold
SHG has potential and is not purely a CSG company - diversification may be its advantage here. It has not grown too much yet so there may still be value. WCL is just listed an operates on farmed out property from SHG. The farming out process may be in favour for SHG because it mitigates exploration and operational risks. If WCL is successful, SHG benefits without significant operational cost.
Detailed analysis on SHG is not done yet but is encouraged to compare its probable / proven reserves with QGC and AOE.
Recommendation: SHG Buy at 33c, Target 60c by 2008.
Wine Glut
==========
The wine glut caused by over-planting / harvest of grapes may have led to significant drop in wine prices and hence winery stocks recently. However there are a few positives about this wine glut to note:
- so far the grape harvest does not seem to be affected by the severe drought in Aust.
- low cost wine means it is available to a broader consumer base. When the price picks up (and it will) it may benefit from a bigger market.
- as the grape planting reduces - due to drought or farmers leaving the sector (poor performance recently) - the price of wine will pick up.
- in the present low priced environment, Aust wine is expanding its export market with significant growth to China (rising middle class) and also to the US (which may overtake Britain as our export destination). (Src: http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21029613-462,00.html)
Watch: CWT
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Links - this will be updated...
Here are some useful links for research into Australian stocks:
http://www.comsec.com.au
Free Online stock broker - with various tools
http://www.pckingsford.com/cykchee/SharesResearchForm.html
Access Comsec tools quickly (need to login to Comsec first)
http://www.australianinvestor.com.au/
Free info on Australian company news announcements
http://www.asx.com.au/
Australian stock exchange
http://www.news.com.au/business/
Company Research tool - find the little tool at the corner of this webpage
The next 4 links are from http://stockanalysis.blogspot.com
http://www.investopedia.com
Investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/
Investopedia - Technical Analysis
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/
Chart school
http://www.equis.com/Education/
Technical Analysis from A to Z, 2nd Edition
http://www.comsec.com.au
Free Online stock broker - with various tools
http://www.pckingsford.com/cykchee/SharesResearchForm.html
Access Comsec tools quickly (need to login to Comsec first)
http://www.australianinvestor.com.au/
Free info on Australian company news announcements
http://www.asx.com.au/
Australian stock exchange
http://www.news.com.au/business/
Company Research tool - find the little tool at the corner of this webpage
The next 4 links are from http://stockanalysis.blogspot.com
http://www.investopedia.com
Investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/
Investopedia - Technical Analysis
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/
Chart school
http://www.equis.com/Education/
Technical Analysis from A to Z, 2nd Edition
Introduction
This blog is created 9 Jan 2007.
Purpose: for opinion, news, analysis of Australian
stocks with a focus, but not limited to biotech companies.
__________________________________________________
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Tuesday, January 9, 2007
Morning Wrap 060109
Resources - especially copper and gold seem to be bringing the resource stocks down. This is affecting the general market which is down from opening at all time high at the start of the year. Bank stocks affected.
US dollar is weak - so there should be more demand in gold, unless supply is abundant.
Should this be leading to a general bigger fall, one of several safe categories could be biotech. An article on the SMH lists safe sectors as utilities, telcos, healthcare, food....
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/analysts-cashing-up-see-reasons-to-be-nervous/2007/01/08/1168104920034.html
Watch biosignal... BOS
US dollar is weak - so there should be more demand in gold, unless supply is abundant.
Should this be leading to a general bigger fall, one of several safe categories could be biotech. An article on the SMH lists safe sectors as utilities, telcos, healthcare, food....
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/analysts-cashing-up-see-reasons-to-be-nervous/2007/01/08/1168104920034.html
Watch biosignal... BOS
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