Technical Analysis - Gann Angles on Australian All Ordinaries Index

Gann analysis using angles is performed here. One of the strongest signals according to Gann is the 45 degree Price vs Time angle. In other words, this main line has a gradient of 1:1. Then Gann suggest drawing secondary lines which is usually fractions of this main angle such as a gradient of 1:2 or 1:3 to get lower angles.

The two charts below are for the monthly and weekly Australian All Ordinaries Index. I found that the literature on Gann angles a little inadequate especially when they talk of 45 degree angles. This is because the points on each individual stock or index has such a different range that we cannot just speak of a gradient of 1:1 (45 degrees). In other words, one unit of price with one unit of time does not usually make 45degrees depending on what range of x, y values are displayed on the graph.

Instead, for the monthly chart, I have chose for the primary line, a gradient of 10:1 and half of that which is 5:1. For the weekly chart, I used the same ratio but rationalised to weekly -> 10 * 12mths / 52 weeks = gradient of 2.3. The secondary line is then half which is 1.15:1. To emphasize, the line on the graphs are NOT chosen by line of best fit by looking at the data. Instead they are chosen using specific gradients such as 10:1, which happen to fit remarkably with the trend.

As shown in the charts, the monthly is almost touch the primary line, while the weekly has just broken through. The charts is taken from the Low Point in December 1990 to present December 2008.




The question of where the share market goes from here is a question of whether the primary line acts as a strong support or it is headed down to the secondary line.

The call is yours to make .....

Technical Analysis - Summary of Oscillators: ROC, RSI, Stochastic, MACD

This is a brief summary of the main types of oscillators for technical analysis. They include Rate of Change, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, MACD. In general, the following points should be noted before use:
1. Oscillators are secondary indicators - Always consider the the Basic Trend first before using oscillator to look for change in trend.
2. Oscillators, by their nature, tend to be leading indicators.
3. Useful at extreme points, when market is overbought or oversold.
4. Divergence between price and oscillator is an important warning.

Note: This article does not aim to be comprehensive. It is hear to provide a quick summary and comparison. For details on technical indicators, one site is:
http://www.forexrealm.com/technical-analysis/technical-indicators.html


Rate of Change (ROC) = 100% * (Price(now) - Price(Ndays ago)) / Price(Ndays ago)
Typical Paramenters: N >= 10.
Sensitivity: small N is more sensitive.
Signals: ROC crossing zero upward and market trend is up => Buy and vice versa.
Can fit trend line to ROC.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Advantages: Smoother than ROC and provide a range from 0 to 100.
Typical Paramenters: N = 5 or 7 for short; 9 or 14 for medium; 21 or 28 for long term
Sensitivity: small N is more sensitive.
Signals: Overbought when above 70 (80 for Bull market), Oversold when below 30 (20 for Bear market)
Can fit trend line to RSI and compare to trend line of Price
Divergence: Important signal when RSI diverge with Price when above 70 or below 30.

Entry based on Divergence between Price charts and RSI chart.
- To target short entry, look at overbought peaks and draw trendline of peaks on Price chart and RSI charts. If the trend diverges, then signal to sell.
- To target long entry, do opposite to above.


Stochastic Oscillator: K, D
Signals: Sell when faster K line crosses the slower D line downwards from above 80, as well as the D line and price diverge with price still upwards. Vice versa for crossing above 20.

Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD)
Typical Paramenters: 12, 26, 9
Signals: Faster MACD line cross above slower Signal line => buy. Vice versa for sell. Also Overbought when far above zero. Oversold when far below zero.
Divergence: When in Oversold region, MACD move up ahead of price line. Vice versa.

Sector - Agribusiness - List of Companies

As mentioned recently in this blog, apart from biotechs, this ozstock blog is now re-focussing on blue-chip companies. Unlike biotechs, ozstock will now start to use traditional fundamental analysis techniques to analyse these blue chips.

As a start, the previous blog has published some common financial ratios at:
http://ozstock.blogspot.com/2008/11/fundamental-analysis-ratios-formula.html
Note the above blog contains a live spreadsheet document (ie. updated from time to time).

In particular, ozstock has identified Agribusiness to be the next rising sector. As such ozstock has now identified potential Agri companies that we may analyse sooner or later. They are:

Australian Agricultural Company Limited (AAC),
ABB Grain Limited (ABB),
AWB Limited (AWB),
Futuris Corporation Limited (FCL),
Forest Enterprises Australia Limited (FEA),
GrainCorp Limited (GNC),
Gunns Limited (GNS),
Great Southern Limited (GTP),
Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL),
Nufarm Limited (NUF),
Primeag Australia Limited (PAG),
Ruralco Holdings Limited (RHL),
Ridley Corporation Limited (RIC),
Select Harvests Limited (SHV),
Tassal Group Limited (TGR),
Timbercorp Limited (TIM)

Tune in next week (or later) .....

Fundamental Analysis - Ratios Formula

This is a collection of commonly used financial ratios to assess the health of a company, as part of fundamental analysis. They include financial ratios from categories such as: Management Ratios, Profitability, Liquidity, Working Capital, Debt Structure, Debt Protection.

The definition are taken from a financial course in Valuation which I took a few years ago. The definitions may be more Australian focussed but it should be mostly applicable to international companies too.

Please feel free to comment.....

Note that these formula will be used in later articles when I start analysing blue-chips. For technical traders and Gann followers, notice that as of today, the ASX has plunged for the third time, meaning either this is the bottom or there is one more to go. Hence my move to analysing blue-chips since this is the period to buy. I would leave biotechs for a while at least until it is quite certain we have hit the bottom of this cycle.

Analysis Update - PGL - Progen

Price($) 0.72
NTA ($) 1.31
P/NTA 0.546
Team 7.5
BurnPeriod 4.89
ProductPipe 2.4
ForeignMarket 1
Cash:Debt Debt Free



Following the abandonment of its most advanced study (Ph III PATHWAY study for liver cancer), this marks the third failure of the compound PI-88 (previous targeted applications were lung and Prostate cancers). Its other series of compounds (eg PG 500) are in pre-clinical stages of development. The company mentions it is focussing on M&A with the remaining funds. The product index has fallen to 2.4 which is below average.

Cash burn is a main indicator for yet to be profitable biotechs. In the case of PGL, its re-capitalisation in the last financial year of over $92m still leave PGL with over $76m this financial year. Simple projection, assuming constant cash burn indicate PGL can last over the next 5 years.
Other financial indicator point to a relatively strong position with no debt.

There are many questions to be asked of this company. The fundamental question is what will PGL do with its stash of cash? How could it have abandoned a late stage product, for which so much cash has been raised? What kind of perseverance can we see from PGL for its remaining early stage products?

Although it is currently trading much lower than its net tangible assets (almost half), investors need to be convinved by management that they can convert the pile of cash into greater return, rather than being consumed with no returns.

Lightning Analysis - AVE - AEVUM Limited

Following huge volatility in the sharemarket over recent weeks, it is now time to look at commercial / industrial stocks, while always keeping an ear open in the biotech space. The reason is not of fear and panic of the market, but simply a recognition that there may be undervalued stocks out there. Note that, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway just invested US$3bil in GE preferred shares. This follows a US$5bil investment into Goldman Sachs 2 weeks ago.

Hence it is time to go hunting.....

One local aussie stock that look stable due to its nature of business is Aevum Limited (AVE). AVE is in the business of managing retirement villages. One would expect a steady income stream unaffected by the current market turmoil. The rationale is the AVE's clients would have saved up for their retirement and they would tend to belong to the higher than middle income group, thus able to support themselves.

Having selected the industry and company, next step is to dive into the financial statements (see its 2008 Annual Report) ...

The first focus is DEBT. AVE has long term debt of $80m; which appeared to be taken on during 2007-08, having repaid previous debt. This compares to cash of $17.5m, receipts of about $21m and total assets of over $809m. A large portion of assets comprise of investment properties at $790m, and little intangibles. On the surface this appears good, in terms of the relative size of the debt to hard assets, as well as the ability to service its loans.

The next thing to look at is the cash flows. Over the last 2 financial years, AVE has made significant acquisitions - $118m in 2006-07 and $52m in 2007-08. While this is not necessarily bad, there should be caution on companies that tries to grow too fast too quickly, especially in such a bear market, with worldwide recession looming.

Also from the operating cashflow, the net operating cashflow, although positive $20m, is made up of other quantities such as resident loans and bonds. The receipts from residents and subsidies are only $21m compared to payments to suppliers and employees of $31m. These two quantities should be considered the basis of the business and the outflow in this case is more than inflow.

The above discovery leads to a more careful look at the profit statement. Overall, the profit is $28.5m, compared to $22.9m the previous year. Looking at the details again, out of the $60m gross income, only $24.7m is from revenue, the remainder is due to revaluation of property. This compares with an expense of $28.4m. The question is, without going to the actual sites nor knowledge of the real market price, can we believe that the properties can be revalued to an extra $35m? Clearly without the revaluation, there would be a net loss.

The summary is that AVE looks to be a business that would be stable in a frightening bear market. But open closer inspection of the financials of the company, the real amount of money made from the business does not look too promising.

News - Alerts and Biotechs writeup

Two quick items on this post:

1. Get emails sent to you when your company made any announcements. You can do this by signing up to www.newsalerts.com.au .

2. An article by "The Australian" entitled "Drug trials revive interest in biotechnology sector" introduces a few local biotechs.

The article is found mirrored here:
Tim Boreham | August 20, 2008

THE biotechnology sector is showing tepid signs of life, having outperformed the overall market in recent months. Of course that isn't saying too much and the trends are patchy, but at least the sector doesn't rival the Gaza Strip as a no-go zone any more.

Such is the improving sentiment that a few of the minnows are muttering about a capital raising. For instance, vaccine champion Avantogen (ASX code: ACU) might have a chequered history, but this hasn't stopped new management from doing the broker rounds ahead of an equity raising of up to $8 million.

If anything, the established players have been doing it toughest. Biota, for instance, abandoned its monstrous damages action against Glaxo, while CSL's share price took a hit after US partner Merck revealed disappointing sales of its Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine.

Elsewhere, some interesting clinical trial results have maintained patchy interest in the sector.

There's always a sane reason not to get too carried away by early-stage results from thinly capitalised companies, but there's a few to which warm-hearted Criterion will extend the benefit of the doubt. Take Living Cell Technologies (LCT), the Kiwi outfit working on a diabetes cure based on the pancreatic islets of specially bred pigs.

In July, Living Cell reported the first five diabetes sufferers implanted with the said porcine cells showed no adverse side-effects but also displayed better than expected benefits.

The Moscow-based trial saw a reduction of daily insulin requirements of 23 per cent to as much as 100 per cent, while four out of five maintained "good control" of blood sugar levels. Living Cell has a $10 million and (probably) the capacity to raise equity, so it's at least one to watch.

Then there's our skin disorder friend Clinuvel (CUV), which gained US fast-track approval for one of its key compounds.

Clinuvel announced the US regulator, FDA, had granted "orphan drug" status to afamelotide (formerly CUV1647), aimed to treat a rare sun allergy called EPP.

Clinuvel's next step -- and there's always a next step -- is to apply to undergo a commercial trial in the US. Still, it's backed by $25 million and has a legitimate seat in the "most likely" camp.

Investors in regenerative medicine pioneer Mesoblast (MSB) are having a blast after nine patients had their broken legs healed with the use of their own stem cells. The ground-breaking trial took place at Royal Melbourne Hospital, with Mesoblast holding the right to commercialise the know-how. It's all very promising, but any revenues of course are years away.

On a more downbeat note, cancer drug Progen (PGI) has benched its experimental liver cancer drug PI-88 after years of attempts to develop the drug. It's a major disappointment in that Progen has raised almost $100 million over 18 months, with nothing to show but $77 million of change.

On a more modest scale, Biosignal (BOS) is headed for a spell in the naughty corner after disappointing your columnist about thrice too often.

The bacterial slime buster is working on an extract from seaweed that prevents the bugs from multiplying on surfaces by impeding their ability to communicate.

The trouble is, the company lacks focus in terms of developing end-uses for the extract, with a number of collaborations -- including one with Californian New Age squillionaire Paul Hawkens -- falling through.

Recommendation-wise, it's hard to be too proscriptive across what's a highly eclectic sector. As a general rule, your columnist leans to cashed-up advanced-stage prospects.

Candidates include Clinuvel, Avexa (targeting HIV), Chemgenex (leukemia), Neuren (neuroscience), Novogen (cancer) and Pharmaxis (bronchiectasis and cystic fibrosis)

According to Biotech Daily analyst Marc Sinatra, Chemgenex's drug "looks the most likely to generate big returns for investors".

He adds that any could surprise. "One thing for sure is that at today's prices all of them look like good value," he says.

The Australian accepts no responsibility for stock recommendations. Readers should contact a licensed financial adviser.