Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts

Monday, April 9, 2018

Review - Sun Tzu's Art of War

What is Sun Tzu's "Art of War" doing in a blog about Equities Analysis and other financial matters? Well, it seems the philosophy of the Art of War can be applied to different fields and Finance would be no different. This is only a quick review - read the whole book on a plane trip to Sing@pore. Here it is:

--------------------------

On the whole, the war strategies enunciated by Sun Tzu can be seen as risk averse. From another perspective, it can also be said equally, that it is about total victory with maximum profitability.
It teaches how to do battle only when there is a high certainty of winning. And that can generally be assured when there are advantages on many fronts.
The treatise start with enumerating five principles: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth; (4) The Commander; (5) Method and discipline. The side with superiority over these five, will be victorious. It is worthwhile noting that the most important of these principles is the Moral Law. This also leads to the command to treat the defeated enemies properly.
One of the more practical strategies, deals with resources for the armies. It recognizes that there is a cost to maintain armies out in the field. One of the consequential strategy of this is to avoid seige whenever possible, and in favor of quick victory. The second strategy from this principle is of course to use the resources of the defeated enemy.
There are also five faults that can lead to downfall of the generals, which are: (1) Recklessness, which leads to destruction; (2) cowardice, which leads to capture; (3) a hasty temper, which can be provoked by insults; (4) a delicacy of honor which is sensitive to shame; (5) over-solicitude for his men, which exposes him to worry and trouble.
There are strategies which are clearly practical and identifiable as purely military strategies, and they involve the condition of the terrain. It discusses the best terrain to occupy, the advantages of various terrain, and the appropriate strategies for different terrains. It goes to such details as when the enemy company is crossing a river.
The next group of strategies involves command of the solders and the relationship between the general and the emperor. The emperor being the highest authority, yet should not interfere with the generals' plans. This can easily be adopted in the modern corporate environment, such as with the CEO and their managers, or between other levels. It goes so far as to advocate defying orders such as when a general knows it will be defeat, he should disregard the emperor's orders to attack. On the other hand, if the general knows victory is certain, then he should attack even if the general says no. One commanding strategy that can equally apply to the modern workers is: "Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look upon them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death." Another one is "Carefully study the well-being of your men, and do not overtax them."
Cunningness, coyness, intelligence are also traits of the commander that must be employed. The enemy should not be fully trusted but be prepared for deception. One quote is "At first, then, exhibit the coyness of a maiden, until the enemy gives you an opening; afterwards emulate the rapidity of a running hare, and it will be too late for the enemy to oppose you."
The last two chapters are interesting in that it shows that during those ancient times, using fire in battle seems common and there are strategies built around it. Using spies is also an established strategy in those times. Five different classes of spies were identified. The importance of spies cannot be underestimated, "Hence it is that which none in the whole army are more intimate relations to be maintained than with spies. None should be more liberally rewarded. In no other business should greater secrecy be preserved."

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Ten simple rules to avoid large trading losses (with CDFs)

This article is published by CommSec and is intended for CFDs. However the techniques seem to be quite useful for other derivatives and even trading stocks directly.

"Avoiding the commitment to failure

In theory, when a trader experiences a decline in the value of an investment the desire should be to exit the position. But often the opposite occurs. A behavioural concept known as ‘escalating commitment to a chosen course of action’ can be the downfall of a trader, especially when using a leveraged product such as contracts for difference.

Forced compliance studies induced individuals to perform unpleasant or dissatisfying acts in the 2003 text The Social Psychology of Organizational Behaviour, edited by Leigh Thompson. Because the individual could not undo the consequences of the act, it was found that the individual biased his attitude towards
the experimental task so as to reduce any negative outcomes resulting from the behaviour. By justifying prior behaviour the decision maker increased his commitment in the face of negative consequences and the higher level of commitment in turn led to further negative consequences.

Probably the most famous example of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action was the Vietnam War. In a 1965 memo from former Under Secretary of State George Ball to US President Lyndon Johnson, Ball wrote “Once we suffer large casualties we will have started a well-nigh irreversible process.
Our involvement will be so great that we cannot - without national humiliation – stop short of achieving our complete objectives.”

In the trading world, once a trade turns bad a trader can rationalise his bad decision and increase his commitment by either staying in the position as losses grow or by adding to the position in what is commonly known (with long positions) as averaging down.

When a losing trade is not exited quickly, because of the leverage factor, losses can mount exponentially. Nick Leeson’s futures trading in Singapore in the 1990s was an example of an escalating commitment to a chosen course of action in a leveraged product. But small private traders managing less spectacular
amounts of capital should also be aware of the phenomenon because it is not uncommon for small traders to end their trading career with a single catastrophic trading loss.

Some simple rules can help you to avoid the big loss and stay disciplined:

1. Trading is a 50-50 prospect. A trader can win less than 50% of the time and still be profitable. Success or failure is not due to the amount of winners you pick but rather the dollar return on winning trades versus losing trades. In other words, be consistent with your risk amount and stop losses and aim to make your wining trades larger than your average losing trade.

2. Markets don’t behave rationally therefore sticking to a losing trade can never be rationalised. Prepare mentally and financially for both scenarios before you enter the trade - winning and losing - by placing stop loss orders and identifying possible price points where the trend may become exhausted.

3. A study of multiple choice examination habits has shown that going back and changing answers increases the chance of being wrong. Never move a stop loss level once it is set, unless it is in the direction of the trend you are trading.

4. Moving a stop loss order with the trend will help you maximise profits because you are changing your exit level in accordance with the market direction. Some experts advocate never exiting a trade unless it’s on a stop loss order – any other approach is effectively picking a top (or bottom).

5. Always aim to place a break-even stop-loss order after your initial stop loss order. A break-even stop is a free ride. No one ever went broke from not taking losses.

6. Choosing not to trade can be more difficult than taking a trade. When there are no good trading opportunities it’s best to sit on the sidelines.

7. In a bull market your goal is to make money from the upside and in a bear market your goal is to make money from the downside. In other words, it’s smarter to look for short trades in a bear market.

8. The middle of the trend is the “meat in the sandwich”; the beginning and the end of a move are inconsequential. If you want to be profitable only trade the middle of the trend.

9. The bull market for stocks has created a bullish bias. Therefore stocks that are breaking down can do so more quickly than rising stocks as the majority of traders exit long positions. Be prepared to act quickly in a falling market.

10. Information such as technical indicators and economic news can be used to justify a losing position. Price is the ultimate arbiter of value. Follow the price. "

As with all other articles on this blog, this article is not considered financial advise, but merely for thought and discussion.