Technical Analysis - Summary of PSAR, Bollinger Bands, Triangles

Ref: http://ozstock.blogspot.com


This is a quick summary of 3 other methods of Technical Analysis. As usual, each method by itself is not as good as using a combination of methods.

PSAR - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
- only use in trending markets
- use as exit tool or trailing stop
- BUY - Price hits PSAR from below
- SELL - Price hits PSAR from above

Bollinger Bands
- Middle Band - 20 period moving average
- Upper Band - Middle Band + 2 standard deviations
- Lower Band - Middle Band - 2 standard deviations
- Use with Double Top of Double Bottom - need the first peak to be outside the Band and the second peak to be inside the band

Triangles
- ascending, descending, symmetrical
- breakout may be in either direction in all 3 types of triangles.
- enter when breakout
- stop loss set inside triangles

These indicators and a few others are shown in the example of the ASX 200 below. The conclusion is that there is no obvious trend of the ASX at the moment as the market is trading indecisive with not much direction.

Technical Analysis (Gann Charts) - All Ords headed for June fall?

Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com

After one of the strongest rally in recent times, are we headed for a June Fall? What do the Gann angles tell us?
Below are the weekly graphs for the Dow Jones Industrial and the All Ordinaries indices, with some Gann angles superimposed.

The story so far is that since the March bottom, stock indices all over the world has been rising until May. The "sell in May and go away" adage did not exactly come through. So what do the Gann charts tell about this?



Looking first at the Dow, the Gann-10 (brown) ascending angle, and the Gann-10 (pink) descending angle is projected to meet sometime in mid August. Since the all time high of 2007, the Gann-10 (pink) has acted as a resistance angle. The last 2 weeks saw the Dow break this resistance angle, but have not reached a significant amount yet. The current week starting 15 June 2009, has begun with a significant drop. One scenario, if you believe it, is that the Dow will retrace downwards along the Gann-10 (pink) and meet the intersection point almost creating a double bottom before starting the next bull run. Two angles from opposite direction intersecting like the Gann-10 pink and brown here, is an important point to watch for.




The All Ords seem to be telling a different story but not that much. One of the important Gann angles Gann-2.3 has acted as a support and the All Ords bounced quite definitively from this. It is now approaching the Gann-1/2 angle which may possibly act as a resistance. Note the Gann-1/2 is drawn from a recent low of 2003 whereas the Gann-2.3 originates from a low point farther back. This prediction may be far off but, if the All Ords finds resistance at the Gann-1/2 as the recent falls in the market continue, it may hit the Gann-2.3 support again. If this is the case, it may set-up for a double bottom to bounce back as the next long term bull rally - which in fact may coincide with the Dow.


Outlook: Brace for a sustained and signicant fall, then recovery from early to mid August.


Aside: Jun 21 is one of the 11 important Gann seasonal dates in the year that trend may change - Lookout!