Buy Sell Notes to Self

This post will be updated with tips as I read them from various sources and when I want to record it down to look back on later. It is not any kind of advice or suggestion to any other people. 


4 Dec 2012
mnf
flt
gem
alu
ccv
sul



26 Nov 2012
A selection of stocks near the bottom but they are in rising industries
ALQ - ALS Ltd
TSE - Transfield Services
MIN - Mineral Resources
SXL - Southern Cross Media


25 Nov 2012
EAX - Energy Action
GEM - G8 Education 


9 Oct 2012
MIN when above 8.00
KRM when break 1.23
AYN above 0.055
CKF when break 1.20



Money Magazine October Issue
Nst roe 40%
slr growth67%
pru grow131%
mineral resources yields 8.45%
sxe grow
mnd roe life debt cash flow
sdm yields 10%
wtf roe 62%
nck grow 23%
dmp
bol
crz roe
rdf grow 15%



16 Sep 2012
RED - Red 5 Mining - nice trend up
SFR - Sandfire Resources - nice trend up 

12 Sep 2012
PRU - Persues Mining - Potential Head - Shoulder bottom.
MGR - Mirvac Group - Search by various criteria seem to pop up this stock quite often.



28 Aug 2012
MYR - Myer Holdings
AHE - AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS FPO


20 Aug 2012
There is a green light confirmation as of the end of last week.
Stocks looking good are:
AEU.ax
CYG.ax



30 June 2012

The following stocks are picked using an analysis based on favourable EPS and dividend yield. In addition, from a technical viewpoint, their price pattern are non-declining.

DLX
MIO
MLD
MGR

29 May 2012
EPW ERM Power     GO
DMP Domino Pizza   GO

1 May 2012
WEB - Webjet                GO
RFE - Red Fork Energy     GO 
DML - Discovery Metals   GO 
RED - Red 5 Limited        STOP


9 Feb 2012
Recent scan of certain stocks with good turn around price graph.

SPL - Starpharma - strong position for a biotech

TRF - Trafford Resources - bouncing up.

MML - Medusa Mining - Strong fundamentals, resource company with incoming cash flow, technicals may have hit support and bouncing up.

SWL - Seymoure Whyte - good ratings from Money Magazine, Montgomery and VectorVest

8 Feb 2012

From a recent article in the Financial Review

POH - no comment
ACL - not impressive cash burn scenario
SPL - good technicals, coming off a bottom with more to go
TIS – 0.35, NTA 0.086  to expensive






13 Dec 2011


A recent investment newsletter came to me, advertising that some Resource tips they have that can make 1000% or more. Obviously they did not give the name of the companies, but they did provide some clues. Here are my GUESSES on which companies they are;






Guyana - Gold
Azimuth AZH?




High Grade Gold 12g/t,   Silver 161 g/t in  Sumatra
Sumatra Copper and Gold SUM?




 Brisbane based-  Silver Explorer -  Production 2012 -  less than 0.10
Alycone AYN ?




 US Western Plains
 Potash 0.80
Potash Minerals POK?




 Base Metal
 Morocco  54k tonne
 Kasbah KAS?




TAnzania Uranium
Leader came from US uranium Cameco
Uranex UNX?










5 Oct 2010

ESG - wait till go up 85-90c
STO - buy when rebound from 12.30 to 12.50
AMP - ROE 40.50 54.80 27.00 29.50, wait for technicals
TGA - sell when below 1.40
TIS - buy when breakout 25
CUV - sell when close under 19

TZL - wait for break above 50c
VLA - wait for break above 35c
POH - wait for break above 11c


CMC Market allows a simple filtering system.
- ROE > 15%
- Debt / Equity < 0.5
- Market Cap < 100,000, 000
- 5 yr avg annual return > 10%
- Net Profit > 10,000,000

the results from the filtering were:
TBR - Tribune Resources NL
TWD - Tamawood Limited

Buy and Hold Strategy - Pros and Cons

The so called buy and hold strategy has been popular for amatuer investors or those looking to park some money into the stock market believing that in the long run, they will have greater return on their investments than other asset classes such as property, government bonds or term deposits. There are various indications that show that this is in fact a failed strategy as investors who adopt this will be worse off.

Here is a list of arguments both for and against the Buy and Hold Strategy summarized from the book by Leslie N. Masonson

Buy--DON'T Hold: Investing with ETFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk

For:
1. Stocks perform better over the long run compared to bonds, treasury bills, cash and is the only way to beat inflation.
2. A diversified portfolio of stock, bonds, mutual funds will provide positive return over the long term.
3. It is better to stay in the market all the time since no one can predict up or down.
4.Stock market always recover and go to new highs, so it is better to be patient and stay with it.
5. If investors miss the best rallies, they will miss out on the best returns so it is better to stay invested in the market.
6.Picking high and low points to sell and buy does not work, so might as well stay invested and also to avoid frequent buy or sell commissions.
7.Only commission is the initial purchase so better to be invested for the long term.
8.Buying no load active and / or passive funds does not incur commission.
9. Rebalancing a portfolio annually to achieve a certain stocks to bonds ratio yearly is good. There are no tax consequences if this is for retirement account (for US holders?).
10. Tax only need to be paid when stocks are sold. For the case of mutual funds, they do pass on capital gains yearly and investors need to pay some tax on this. This is more relaxed for retirement accounts. (for US holders?).


Against:
1. Sometimes may take up to 20 years to break even since there is usually bear market in this time frame. Historically some 20 year period may return negative after inflation is accounted for.
2. Exposed to bear markets and crashes. If you just buy and hold, you will lose what you have gained and need to wait for the recovery.
3. From 1998 to 2009, buy and hold strategy did not return positive return after inflation is accounted for.
4. Diversification may not help as some bear market or crashes affect all industries.
5. There is no defense in a bear market. Buy and hold is only effective during a bull market.
6. Missing out on strong market rallies is not as bad as avoiding the worst daily, weekly drops in the market. Movement of prices in a crash is much more severe than in a charging bull market.
7. Commissions on buying and selling stocks have dropped. ETFs in particular allow exposure to diversified set of stocks.