Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Continuing the series of summaries of investment strategy book's, here is the acclaimed book by Stan Weinstein on Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. It is presented in point forms so that it is quick and easy to read. 

The points includes when not to buy stock, how not to sell stocks, how to sell stocks profitably, when not to short sell stocks and when to short. In addition, Weinstein has identified the pattern on how stocks rise up and decline in FOUR stages.

Don't buy

- overall market is bearish

- stock in negative group

- stock below its 30 week MA

- its 30 week MA is decreasing

- stock has already advanced a lot

- if stock has poor volume characteristic on breakout

- stock has poor relative strength

- stock has nearby overhead resistance

- by guessing a bottom

Don't sell (stock you already have):

- sell based on tax considerations

- sell based on dividend yield

- sell based on PE or because PE is too high

- average losses by buying more stock that is going down.

- wait of the next rally to sell

- refuse to sell because market is trending up

- keep holding stock because it is high quality

Selling stocks

- use stop losses - based on MA and previous support level

- don't use stop loss based on percentages

- First stop loss should be based only on the previous support

- Other stop losses adjusted based on MA

- Increase the stop losses to higher bottoms

- use stop loss at number slightly less than a round number.

don't short

- because of high PE

- because  price has rise too much

- because everyone thinks it's going to crash

- stock trades thinly

- a stage 2 stock

- stock that is in a strong group

- without protecting with a buy stop loss

- a stock that is above its Rising 30 week M.A.

- a stock with positive relative strength

Do short

- negative market

- negative group - group chart broken below 30 week MA, and declining relative strength.

- its stage 2 increase  was very strong, clearly above 30week MA

- Volume confirmation not necessary for shorts, since prices on the way down don't need strong volume

- Short when the price break down below a certain level. Place buy stops at the previous peak.

STAGES

1. Base phase - trending in range

2. Advancing phase- moving strongly upwards. 30 week MA also  starts increasing after breakout. BUY

3. The Top Area - 30week MA starts to level off. Place sell stop below this range.

4. Declining phase - don't need strong volume to confirm this phase. SELL

RELATIVE Strength = Price of Stock / Price of Market Average

Analysis - AVX - Avexa

Price($) 0.59
NTA ($) 0.19
P/NTA 3.07
Team 8.5
BurnPeriod 11.92
ProductPipe 3.6
ForeignMarket 2
Cash:Debt DebtFree


Avexa is developing drugs for HIV and antibacteria-resistant infections. It has one lead product that has recently obtained successful results in Ph IIb trials. More results for Ph IIb are expected to be released in the early months of 2008. Even so, it has received the green light for Ph III. Entering Ph III itself is an important stage of biotechs - it is the stage where global pharmaceuticals may become a main partner or even take over the junior biotech at a high premium. However, it is also a stage where R&D companies may crash if the Ph III clinical
results are disappointing.

AVX's drug are to target anti-bacteria resistance and its lead product ATC is an antiviral for HIV. Ph IIb results have shown that ATC is able to target current drug resistant HIV, i.e. it works where other drugs have failed. One of its mechanism is to stop the replication of the HIV virus.

AVX cited other products in the pipeline, however they are at the early preclinical stage - hence the low product index of 3.6. Although AVX beliefs that it's approx $70 cash-at-hand is a de-risking factor, the lack of other advance stage products in the pipeline mean that the share price is almost certain to fall below 50%, likely more, if the lead product receives a setback.

AVX has an incredible line up in the Board and management, if PhD's are the only indicator to go buy - which is the case in our analysis since we don't know them individually. The management index is a score of 8.5, almost double the points of what we consider as average. A positive note goes to CEO Dr. Chick who has served since 2004 or earlier and has through the various Phases of clinical trials of ATC.

The Foreign Market index of 2.0 for AVX is relatively low. Its main product is ATC was acquired from a North American company. It currently has collaboration with Shanghai to develop inhibitors that prevent HIV binding to cells. We may suppose AVX's drug is known in the specialist anti-HIV community for its effectiveness, but its lack of commercial association with big pharmas present a risk especially when AVX has openly stated its strategy include looking for partners for Ph III and beyond.

Financially, AVX is debt free which is good. Quarterly cash burn has doubled in the last quarter to almost $6m. This is expected given it is entering Ph III. Cash burn rate calculation of over 11 quarters is based on linear trend. But as Ph III spending will definitely increase, the real cash burn should be greater than that. But given the amount of cash left, it is very likely to last over 1.5 years without further injection - this would bring it to the middle of Ph III. Hence any investment now should be re-evaluated at least in the middle of 2009.

From a technical analysis point, AVX has been quite volatile. A year ago, it was less than 25c, but news of successful Ph IIb pushed it close to 85c, but other concerns, perhaps ability to find a big pharma partner has caused the price to go as low as 45c. The recent low is 50c and news of Ph III entry approval has caused a rise. It price to NTA is currently 3.07 which is on average, but not cheap. Noting that Ph III is a cash burner, expect the P/NTA to increase in coming months, thus making the stock expensive. In conclusion, the share price itself is too volatile and investors sentiment is totally locked into one product of the company. I estimate 2 years before the results of Ph III to be known.

Recommendation: Wait until mid 2008 and buy if the price is 30c or below.