Friday, March 23, 2012

Top Stocks from Lincoln and V.Vest 2Feb12


Lincoln Top 10 stocks published in the Money Magazine, March 2012 issue, are:
Silver Lake (SLR)
Miclyn Express (MIO)
Monadelphous Group (MND)
Consolidated Media (CMJ)
Credit Corp Group (CCP)
Tax Free Solutions (TOX)
REA Group (REA)
McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)
Forge Group (FGE)
Ausdrill (ASL)

The Lincoln stocks above were ranked as at 2 Feb 2012

The stocks below are obtained on the same date at 2 Feb 2012 using the Vector Vest system. Two systems using quite different technical metrics to come up with a list of top 10 stocks at the same date. We would expect the list to be different since there are almost 1700 stocks analysed. But there are 2 stocks appearing on both lists. They are:

Silver Lake (SLR)
Credit Corp Group (CCP)


Fast forward to today, and looking at a list of Top 20 stocks on 23 March 2012 according to Vector Vest, the stocks that are also in Lincoln's list are:

Credit Corp Group (CCP)
McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)
Ausdrill (ASL)


So the stand out consensus is CCP. Although SLR has been quite strong in the past few months, recently its trend is down. Both MMS and ASL appear to be consistently strong over the last few months.

https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?docid=1KBV9PNnuL1jVn90_Mnnrn-H8b4jK71szm2pAdZQ&pli=1

https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S4385359yN6




Wednesday, March 21, 2012

When to Invest in Bonds.



Bonds can be confusing at first to anyone new to it. The common features in bonds which may cause confusion are:
- When Bond yields go up, the Bond price comes down and vice versa.
- When Stock Market goes up, the Bond Market goes down and vice versa.

There is nothing special about the Bond Price which is the amount you pay to buy a bond or amount you receive when you sell a bond, just like anything else in any market.

Also there is nothing special in the definition of the simple yield of a Bond. The yield is like the fixed interest you get at regular periods (when you are still owner of the bond) divided by the price you paid.

To get to the point of when to invest in bonds, we should clear up why yield going up will lead to price coming down. Say I buy a 10year bond with 5% yield at $1000. By definition, at the end of the life of the bond (10 years), the owner will get back $1000. Along the way, the owner will get 5% interest or $50.

Imagine sometime before the 10 years, the bond on the market is priced at $800. If I need to sell the bond, and someone else buy it, it would be $800. The new owner will still get $50 interest based on the price of $800. Hence the yield has increased.

In the reverse case, when the price on the market for the same bond is $1200, the new owner still get $50 interest at regular period. Since the new owner paid $1200 but get only $50, so the yield is lower than the original 5%.

So that is the mechanics of why bond yield is inverse to bond price. But what drives the market, that is the people, to want to pay such different prices to the bond face value? There are many complex reasons which interact with each other. But here is just a list of simplistic reasons to help make sense of it:
- When the general interest rate go up, say Reserve Bank increases interest rate, so banks also increase interest rates. To remain attractive, the bonds which are still not matured, need to attract investors by giving better yield. It can only do this if it sells for a lower price.
- Inflation also drives the interest rate up thus also lowering bond price.
- When the economy is booming, interest rate in general goes up, thus bond yield need to go up to be competitive. This makes bond prices lower. Hence when stock market goes up, bonds go down.
- The reverse is also true. When inflation is low, interest rate low, stock market is down, then bond price goes up.

A real example in the Australian market. Given current market conditions of relatively high interest rate compared to other countries, and a stock market that is not improving, there is a greater chance that the Reserve Bank would decrease interest rates. If this happens, then bond prices should go up. But be wary of holding bonds long term as the inflation risk will slowly reduce the value of bonds.

Conversely, there is talk in the news that the US bond market is reaching a bubble. That may well be true given the historic low interest rate. When the US interest rate starts to increase, then that make break the bond bubble and send prices tumbling down.

This article covers the very basic of bonds. There are various types of bonds like Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds, etc. Please investigate further before investing......

References:
http://finance.yahoo.com/education/bond
Goldman Sachs: Best Time in a Generation to Buy Stocks, Sell Bonds


Sunday, March 11, 2012

Lightning Analysis - PDN - Paladin Energy


Is Uranium undervalued?

According to this article:
Uranium on rise as dust settles on Fukushima
some of the analysts certainly think so. The article also mentioned a couple of Uranium companies - a good starting point for further analysis.

Anyway, this brief analysis looks at Paladin Energy. Looking purely on technicals, there is a slight indication that it is starting to turn up. The confirmation would be if the share prices break out the $1.90 resistance level.



However, looking at the fundamentals, PDN is making losses and has a high gearing ratio. It is also not able to cover interest payments from income alone. However it is a very attractive speculation, hoping that Uranium in general will recover and also due to shortage of supply. PDN is currently trading very close to Net Tangible Asset value and also Book Value.  Once again, wait for the break out at 1.90.



                                 1-Jun-09 1-Jun-10 1-Jun-11
 Net Interest Cover      -0.08     -0.32      -0.75
 Net Gearing (%)            82.4      39.9     44.4
 Debt/Equity (%)           92.9        76.3     53.1
 NTA                            1.06        1.4       1.49
 Revenues (m)              138.2      237.4    49.1
Operating margin (%)     6.9        4           -2.9
Net Profit Before Abnormals (m)  92.7 -62.1 -76.6
Net Profit (m)                 -591.8  -62.1    -76.6
Long term debt (m)         705     800.4     629.3


If you wish to look into other Uranium companies, here is a list to start from

PDNPaladin Energy Ltd.1.78+0.042.59%1.49B
KAHKalahari Minerals Plc243.50+0.250.10%610.61M
EMEEnergy Metals Limited0.395+0.0102.60%60.74M
RGURegalpoint Resources Ltd0.0750.0000.00%5.07M
SMMSummit Resources Ltd (...1.61-0.04-2.42%350.95M
CXUCauldron Energy Ltd0.1800.0000.00%17.33M
AZHAzimuth Resources Limited0.8900.0000.00%340.26M
AEEAura Energy Limited0.195+0.0052.63%31.12M
UULUnited Uranium Ltd0.080-0.003-3.61%3.44M
NTUNorthern Uranium Limited0.445-0.010-2.20%78.08M
BLZBlaze International Ltd.0.0020.0000.00%1.48M





Saturday, March 3, 2012

Technical / Fundamental Analysis - Dividend and Growth

This is a very quick analysis based on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis. Using the VectorVest system to scan all shares in the ASX, the list of 7 shares presented here are based on the following criteria.
1. High Dividend Yield - DY
2. A VST Vector Vest proprietary score >= 1.20
3. Growth Rate > 15%

The original intention of this search is to find high dividend stocks, but we also want "good" stocks. The VST score is an overall rating of the proprietary indicators of Vector Vest. VST range from 0.0 to 2.0. Any stocks above 1.0 is good, so we chose VST >=1.20. Also we look at stocks with good growth rate in the future.

The results are the following 7 stocks:

Company Symbol Price DY VST GRT Industry
Seven West Media Ltd SWM 4.04 11.14 1.3 18 Consumer Discr(Media)
IMF Ltd IMF 1.42 10.56 1.28 24 Financials(Diversified)
Myer Holdings Ltd MYR 2.33 9.87 1.2 21 Consumer Discr(Retailing)
Aus Leaders Fund ALF 1.17 9.4 1.21 22 Financials(Diversified)
Finbar Group FRI1.01 8.91 1.22 26 Financials(RealEstate)
Southern Cross Media Grp Ltd SXL 1.335 7.49 1.38 25 Consumer Discr(Media)
Alesco Corp LTD ALS1.33 6.77 1.3 22 Industrials (CapitalGoods)


The graphs are shown below. As it turns out, although we are looking for good dividend shares, these stocks are also showing good signs of turn around. Turn around stocks are good opportunites as indicated by O'Neil and Weinstein.

Key:
Black Line = Price
Purple Line = 40 Moving Average
Green Line = Stop Loss Price

PS Apoologies for the quality of the graph, eg for the lack of time scale. They are 1-year graphs. More detailed graphs can be obtained from many other free financial websites: finance.yahoo.com, etc.

ALS - Has been suffering for some time, but has stabilised recently. It has also risen above its 40day Moving Average (40MA)


SXL - same story as ALS

ALF - has started a very strong climb and shows no signs of weakening yet.

FRI - is almost reaching its one year high. Again the rise looks set to go on.

IMF - has been a good performer throughout the GFC but slumped in the past year. There are recent signs of turnaround.

MYR - This is the well known but unloved Myer shares. It had a false bounce recently, but may soon follow with a double bottom. Need to wait and see.

SWM - This is another well known industrial - Seven Media. It has been solidly rising for the past half year.