Thursday, May 20, 2010

Technical Analysis - All Ords Triple Top and falling ABC Swing Signal

The chart of the Australian All Ordinaries show a few indicators together up until 19 May 2010.
This has been an incredibly volatile few weeks and some major signals are on the verge of being established, if they have not done so already.

1. The Triple Top - the most recent top seems like the biggest of them all. A double or triple top is one of the easiest way to profit according to David Bowden and WD Gann. But to be sure it is a triple top, its recent downward leg has to break the other two bottoms on Nov 09 and Feb 10. The recent lows has passed that slightly. This indicates a short signal - but remember the stop loss.

2. Swing Trading - ABC - This is another easy way to identify a trend. As indicated on the diagram, when the graph moves from C downwards and passes B, then it is time to sell. Notice the ABC is based on the swing chart of the daily graph.

3. Price Retracement - the scale on the right hand side indicates the current price has broke through the 50% retracement from the major high in 2007 to the major low in March 2009. The 50% is a strong resistance and support line and according to W.D. Gann, once it breaks through, it signals a strong trend.

4. Finally the graph below is the Average Directional Index - ADX - this indicator is not a commonly used one, but practitioners who use this indicator have done it quite successfully. Basically, for a downtrend to be established, the ADX (blue line) must be above 40, as it is now. This shows the bear trend is very strong. In addition, as the ADX is rising while -DI(green line) and ADX  are above the +DI (red line), it is a strong indication of sell.

There are many other indicators, but the four above combines the simple and proven ones as well as the more advanced ones, and they all point downwards.

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