Technical Analysis (Gann Charts) - All Ords headed for June fall?

Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com

After one of the strongest rally in recent times, are we headed for a June Fall? What do the Gann angles tell us?
Below are the weekly graphs for the Dow Jones Industrial and the All Ordinaries indices, with some Gann angles superimposed.

The story so far is that since the March bottom, stock indices all over the world has been rising until May. The "sell in May and go away" adage did not exactly come through. So what do the Gann charts tell about this?



Looking first at the Dow, the Gann-10 (brown) ascending angle, and the Gann-10 (pink) descending angle is projected to meet sometime in mid August. Since the all time high of 2007, the Gann-10 (pink) has acted as a resistance angle. The last 2 weeks saw the Dow break this resistance angle, but have not reached a significant amount yet. The current week starting 15 June 2009, has begun with a significant drop. One scenario, if you believe it, is that the Dow will retrace downwards along the Gann-10 (pink) and meet the intersection point almost creating a double bottom before starting the next bull run. Two angles from opposite direction intersecting like the Gann-10 pink and brown here, is an important point to watch for.




The All Ords seem to be telling a different story but not that much. One of the important Gann angles Gann-2.3 has acted as a support and the All Ords bounced quite definitively from this. It is now approaching the Gann-1/2 angle which may possibly act as a resistance. Note the Gann-1/2 is drawn from a recent low of 2003 whereas the Gann-2.3 originates from a low point farther back. This prediction may be far off but, if the All Ords finds resistance at the Gann-1/2 as the recent falls in the market continue, it may hit the Gann-2.3 support again. If this is the case, it may set-up for a double bottom to bounce back as the next long term bull rally - which in fact may coincide with the Dow.


Outlook: Brace for a sustained and signicant fall, then recovery from early to mid August.


Aside: Jun 21 is one of the 11 important Gann seasonal dates in the year that trend may change - Lookout!

Technical Analysis - Update Dow and All Ords Weekly Gann Charts

It is about 2 months since the last post on the analysis on the Dow Jones index and the Aussie All Ords index. In that time, the market has climbed significantly on renewed confidence. The consecutive weekly gains left such an impression on some that there is talk that we have reached the bottom of the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). Instead of random speculation, let's turn to our weekly charts.

In the previous post,
http://ozstock.blogspot.com/2009/03/technical-analysis-update-dow-and-all.html
the DOW seem to be right in between a set of Gann bear angles and bull angles. The All Ords at that time was testing an important angle for support.







In the current situation, the All Ords seemed to have not only found the support but has bounced up from it. The Dow stopped in the middle of the 2 angle supports and also bounced upwards strongly.

So are there any indications of support or resistance in the near future? Looking at the Dow first, it is almost at the point of touching the (pink) angle from the top of the 2007 boom, which is a potential resistance. For the All Ords, although it has crossed over the support angle emphatically, it is approaching the top of the 20 day maximum envelope, almost like being sandwiched between the support angle and the envelope.

Two other historical pattern to note are: i) the "Sell in May" adage; ii) the Gann seasonal date of May 5, both of which is acting against the current trend.

List of Blue Chip Companies - Argo Investments

The purpose of this article is to show a list of blue chip companies being invested by Investment Companies - in this case - Argo Investments.

Picking blue chip companies are easy or hard depending on who you are. If you are new to the market, the fact that there are over a thousand companies in the Australian sharemarket makes it a daunting task to even start analysing. Why not look at what the experts are investing.

Currently, the bear market is over a year old - and most people recognised this is going to be one of the worst economic downturns in history. Yet in terms of the sharemarket, clever investors are preparing to dive back in any time now, waiting for the signal that the market has bottomed. Even when the share market starts picking up again, the economy will be in the middle of a great struggle. Companies that are able to survive will be the blue chip companies that keep on producing and coming out of the recession strongly. So that is why we are focussing on blue chips.

Argo investments have been around for more than a decade. While I have not done a thorough analysis, it has done relatively well in the six months to 31 Dec 2008. I present here the list of principal investments of Argo Investments as a guide and starting point for picking blue chip companies.

BHP Billiton Ltd. 12.78%
Westpac Banking Corporation 8.81%
Telstra Corporation Ltd. 7.10%
Macquarie Group Ltd. 6.78%
Milton Corporation Ltd. 6.68%
Woolworths Ltd. 6.09%
National Australia Bank Ltd. 5.90%
Australian United Investment Company Ltd. 5.30%
Origin Energy Ltd. 5.18%
QBE Insurance Group Ltd. 4.51%
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. 4.32%
Wesfarmers Ltd. 4.10%
Commonwealth Bank of Australia 3.77%
Rio Tinto Ltd. 3.54%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. 3.07%
Westfield Group 2.75%
Foster’s Group Ltd. 2.44%
Santos Ltd. 2.37%
AMP Ltd. 2.29%
AGL Energy Ltd. 2.22%