Technical Analysis (Gann Charts) - All Ords headed for June fall?

Source: http://ozstock.blogspot.com

After one of the strongest rally in recent times, are we headed for a June Fall? What do the Gann angles tell us?
Below are the weekly graphs for the Dow Jones Industrial and the All Ordinaries indices, with some Gann angles superimposed.

The story so far is that since the March bottom, stock indices all over the world has been rising until May. The "sell in May and go away" adage did not exactly come through. So what do the Gann charts tell about this?



Looking first at the Dow, the Gann-10 (brown) ascending angle, and the Gann-10 (pink) descending angle is projected to meet sometime in mid August. Since the all time high of 2007, the Gann-10 (pink) has acted as a resistance angle. The last 2 weeks saw the Dow break this resistance angle, but have not reached a significant amount yet. The current week starting 15 June 2009, has begun with a significant drop. One scenario, if you believe it, is that the Dow will retrace downwards along the Gann-10 (pink) and meet the intersection point almost creating a double bottom before starting the next bull run. Two angles from opposite direction intersecting like the Gann-10 pink and brown here, is an important point to watch for.




The All Ords seem to be telling a different story but not that much. One of the important Gann angles Gann-2.3 has acted as a support and the All Ords bounced quite definitively from this. It is now approaching the Gann-1/2 angle which may possibly act as a resistance. Note the Gann-1/2 is drawn from a recent low of 2003 whereas the Gann-2.3 originates from a low point farther back. This prediction may be far off but, if the All Ords finds resistance at the Gann-1/2 as the recent falls in the market continue, it may hit the Gann-2.3 support again. If this is the case, it may set-up for a double bottom to bounce back as the next long term bull rally - which in fact may coincide with the Dow.


Outlook: Brace for a sustained and signicant fall, then recovery from early to mid August.


Aside: Jun 21 is one of the 11 important Gann seasonal dates in the year that trend may change - Lookout!

Technical Analysis - Update Dow and All Ords Weekly Gann Charts

It is about 2 months since the last post on the analysis on the Dow Jones index and the Aussie All Ords index. In that time, the market has climbed significantly on renewed confidence. The consecutive weekly gains left such an impression on some that there is talk that we have reached the bottom of the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). Instead of random speculation, let's turn to our weekly charts.

In the previous post,
http://ozstock.blogspot.com/2009/03/technical-analysis-update-dow-and-all.html
the DOW seem to be right in between a set of Gann bear angles and bull angles. The All Ords at that time was testing an important angle for support.







In the current situation, the All Ords seemed to have not only found the support but has bounced up from it. The Dow stopped in the middle of the 2 angle supports and also bounced upwards strongly.

So are there any indications of support or resistance in the near future? Looking at the Dow first, it is almost at the point of touching the (pink) angle from the top of the 2007 boom, which is a potential resistance. For the All Ords, although it has crossed over the support angle emphatically, it is approaching the top of the 20 day maximum envelope, almost like being sandwiched between the support angle and the envelope.

Two other historical pattern to note are: i) the "Sell in May" adage; ii) the Gann seasonal date of May 5, both of which is acting against the current trend.

News - World's 50 Safest Banks - according to Global Finance

Here is the excerpt from Global Finance Magazine - Feb 2009

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New York, February 25, 2009 — Such has been the turmoil in the world’s banking industry that, for the first time, Global Finance magazine is publishing a mid-year update of its much-respected Safest Banks listing. A full report on the list will appear in the April issue of Global Finance.The “World’s 50 Safest Banks” 2009 were selected through a comparison of the long-term credit ratings and total assets of the 500 largest banks around the world. Ratings from Moody’s, Standard& Poor’s and Fitch were used.

Global Finance has published its “World’s SafestBanks” listing for 17 years and this ranking hasbecome a recognized and trusted standard of credit worthiness for the entire financial world. “The rating agencies have determined these banks have demonstrated a more prudent and sustainable approach to risk than their peers,”says Global Finance publisher Joseph D.Giarraputo. “More than ever customers all around the world are viewing long term credit worthiness as the key feature of the banks with which they do business.”

1.KfW(Germany)

2.Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC)(France)

3.Bank Nederlands Gemeenten (BNG)(Netherlands)

4.Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank(Germany)

5.Rabobank(Netherlands)

6.Landeskreditbank Baden-Wuerttemberg-Foerderbank(Germany)

7.NRW. Bank(Germany)

8.BNP Paribas(France)

9.Banco Santander(Spain)

10.Royal Bank of Canada(Canada)

11.National Australia Bank(Australia)

12.Commonwealth Bank of Australia(Australia)

13.Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA)(Spain)

14.Toronto-Dominion Bank(Canada)

15.Australia & New Zealand Banking Group(Australia)

16.Westpac Banking Corporation(Australia)

17.Banco Espanol de Credito S.A. (Banesto)(Spain)

18.ASB Bank Limited(New Zealand)

19.HSBC(United Kingdom)

20.Credit Agricole(France)

21.Wells Fargo(United States)

22.Nordea Bank(Sweden)

23.Scotiabank(Canada)

24.La Caixa(Spain)

25.Svenska Handelsbanken(Sweden)

26.US Bancorp(United States)

27.Banco Popular Espanol(Spain)

28.DBS Bank(Singapore)

29.Pohjola Bank(Finland)

30.Deutsche Bank(Germany)

31.Société Générale(France)

32.Intesa Sanpaolo(Italy)

33.Bank of Montreal(Canada)

34.DnB NOR Bank(Norway)

35.The Bank of New York Mellon(United States)

36.Caixa Geral de Depositos(Portugal)

37.United Overseas Bank(Singapore)

38.OCBC(Singapore)

39.Axa Bank Europe(Belgium)

40.Credit Suisse Group(Switzerland)

41.Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg(Germany)

42.Nationwide Building Society(United Kingdom)

43.CIBC(Canada)

44.National Bank Of Kuwait(Kuwait)

45.Barclays(United Kingdom)

46.UBS(Switzerland)

47.JPMorgan Chase(United States)

48.Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ(Japan)

49.Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel (BFCM) (France)
50.Credit Industriel et Commercial (CIC)(France)

--- Global Finance magazine February 25, 2009 ---