Halcygen - Pharmaceutical, super generics, Roger Ashton
- intended listing 29 June 2007
Wind Hydrogen - wind farms, hydrogen storage technology
- applications close 25 July 2007
- intended listing 10 Aug 2007
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Analysis - GTG - Genetic Technologies
Price($) 0.17
NTA ($) 0.04
P/NTA 4.28
Team 2.8
BurnPeriod 4.16
ProductPipe 0.2
ForeignMarket 6.8
Cash:Debt 12.7
This is a brief analysis. GTG aims to grab as much patents as it can for so called "junk DNA". It believes that the junk DNA has immense potential that has yet to be discovered. This belief does have some truth behind it. Already its business case of licensing these junk DNA for research is gaining traction - but profitability is another question.
Its product development pipeline is understandably small since that is not its business focus. It does have a service business in providing paternity tests in Hong Kong. Its Foreign Market exposure is above average with agreements in several continents.
Unlike most biotechs, GTG has debt but this is small compared to current cash. Assuming current burn rate continues, GTG may last another 4 quarters.
One negative aspect is GTG has a large number of shares - about 360 million. At current price, the P/NTA indicates it is quite expensive. The business case is unique, higher risk than most biotechs, but higher potential returns.
Recommendation: Worth consider buying if it drops and stabilises at 7cents.
NTA ($) 0.04
P/NTA 4.28
Team 2.8
BurnPeriod 4.16
ProductPipe 0.2
ForeignMarket 6.8
Cash:Debt 12.7
This is a brief analysis. GTG aims to grab as much patents as it can for so called "junk DNA". It believes that the junk DNA has immense potential that has yet to be discovered. This belief does have some truth behind it. Already its business case of licensing these junk DNA for research is gaining traction - but profitability is another question.
Its product development pipeline is understandably small since that is not its business focus. It does have a service business in providing paternity tests in Hong Kong. Its Foreign Market exposure is above average with agreements in several continents.
Unlike most biotechs, GTG has debt but this is small compared to current cash. Assuming current burn rate continues, GTG may last another 4 quarters.
One negative aspect is GTG has a large number of shares - about 360 million. At current price, the P/NTA indicates it is quite expensive. The business case is unique, higher risk than most biotechs, but higher potential returns.
Recommendation: Worth consider buying if it drops and stabilises at 7cents.
Friday, June 15, 2007
TechAnalysis - BHP - abc pattern
A double bottom in BHP can be seen around 25 Sep 06 and 15 Jan 07. The latter bottom is the start of and a-b-c pattern. Carrying this pattern forward, the 100% resistance is encountered on 9th May 07 but finally broke through around 1 June 07.
On 14 June 07, the day of massive gains for BHP, the price shot pass the 133% level which is $33.60 to end the day at $33.90. The question going forward into a highly volatile market is can the 133% level be a point of attraction which caused the stock to retrace? Or can it shoot all the way to 150% at $34.50?
A double bottom in BHP can be seen around 25 Sep 06 and 15 Jan 07. The latter bottom is the start of and a-b-c pattern. Carrying this pattern forward, the 100% resistance is encountered on 9th May 07 but finally broke through around 1 June 07.
On 14 June 07, the day of massive gains for BHP, the price shot pass the 133% level which is $33.60 to end the day at $33.90. The question going forward into a highly volatile market is can the 133% level be a point of attraction which caused the stock to retrace? Or can it shoot all the way to 150% at $34.50?
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Analysis - BPH - Biopharmica
Analysis - BPH - Biopharmica
FREE SHARES
But wait ... let's look at this company first
Price($) 0.08
NTA ($) 0.07
P/NTA 1.26
Team 1.9
BurnPeriod 6.46
ProductPipe 8
ForeignMarket 0.5
Cash:Debt 3.62
The analysis shows great strength in some areas yet poor in others.
Debt: Unlike many early stage biotechs, BPH already has debt - while others typically have zero debt. Yet a cash:debt ratio of 3.62 should not be too risky. Projecting the previous cash burn rate forward, BPH can survive another 6.5 quarters or over 1.5 years if the burn rate remains the same. Not shown here is the fact that the operational expense for BPH is between $200k to $300k recently. This can be viewed positively as slow cash burn or viewed negatively as a lack of activity for the company.
Market: Though not many of its products are on the market, it has not shown any indication of targeting foreign markets on any scale. It does have collaboration with GE Healthcare and patents targeting foreign markets.
People: It has a small team with an even smaller number of scientifically qualified people at management level. It is not certain to what extent can BPH rely on its partners or collaborators on scientific knowledge including Universities.
Products: The product pipeline is one of the strong factors of BPH. Its lung disease chip is in the market while the Brain Monitor is in the process of gaining market approval. A tumor suppresor gene is also being developed but in the pre-clinical stage.
Price: Looking at the P/NTA ratio shows that it is one of the most undervalued startup biotechs. With a P/NTA value of 1.26 combined with 6 quarters of survival left, BPH looks very attractive despite other shortcomings.
Now for the FREE SHARES ....
as of this evening of 13 June 2007, after the close of the ASX, BPH announced that its subsidiary responsible for the Brain Monitor will be spun off. The terms is that each BPH holder on July 15 2007, will receive the same number of shares for free. The shares of the new company will be $0.20. BPH will likely shoot up at the open of tomorrow's trading.
Recommendation: Without Spinoff and Free Shares -> BUY up to 12c. With the knowledge of free shares -> Buy up to 22c.
Disclaimer: I do not own BPH shares yet - but likely to order.
FREE SHARES
But wait ... let's look at this company first
Price($) 0.08
NTA ($) 0.07
P/NTA 1.26
Team 1.9
BurnPeriod 6.46
ProductPipe 8
ForeignMarket 0.5
Cash:Debt 3.62
The analysis shows great strength in some areas yet poor in others.
Debt: Unlike many early stage biotechs, BPH already has debt - while others typically have zero debt. Yet a cash:debt ratio of 3.62 should not be too risky. Projecting the previous cash burn rate forward, BPH can survive another 6.5 quarters or over 1.5 years if the burn rate remains the same. Not shown here is the fact that the operational expense for BPH is between $200k to $300k recently. This can be viewed positively as slow cash burn or viewed negatively as a lack of activity for the company.
Market: Though not many of its products are on the market, it has not shown any indication of targeting foreign markets on any scale. It does have collaboration with GE Healthcare and patents targeting foreign markets.
People: It has a small team with an even smaller number of scientifically qualified people at management level. It is not certain to what extent can BPH rely on its partners or collaborators on scientific knowledge including Universities.
Products: The product pipeline is one of the strong factors of BPH. Its lung disease chip is in the market while the Brain Monitor is in the process of gaining market approval. A tumor suppresor gene is also being developed but in the pre-clinical stage.
Price: Looking at the P/NTA ratio shows that it is one of the most undervalued startup biotechs. With a P/NTA value of 1.26 combined with 6 quarters of survival left, BPH looks very attractive despite other shortcomings.
Now for the FREE SHARES ....
as of this evening of 13 June 2007, after the close of the ASX, BPH announced that its subsidiary responsible for the Brain Monitor will be spun off. The terms is that each BPH holder on July 15 2007, will receive the same number of shares for free. The shares of the new company will be $0.20. BPH will likely shoot up at the open of tomorrow's trading.
Recommendation: Without Spinoff and Free Shares -> BUY up to 12c. With the knowledge of free shares -> Buy up to 22c.
Disclaimer: I do not own BPH shares yet - but likely to order.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Analysis Update - ACG - Atcor Medical
Atcor today announced the signing of distributors in India and China. It also re-signed distribution agreements in Singapore and Malaysia. The latter raises the question about the need to re-sign agreements. These countries has already been factored in the previous analysis and hence does not change the "Foreign Market" rating of 5.2.
ACG's share price has dropped since the last analysis but recovered to 16.5cents, that is 0.5c lower than the previous analysis. The P/NTA now stands at 1.128 similar to previous value but a little lower. All fundamentals considered, ACG still represents good value with good growth potential.
Recommendation: Buy up to 20c.
Disclaimer: I own ACG stocks.
ACG's share price has dropped since the last analysis but recovered to 16.5cents, that is 0.5c lower than the previous analysis. The P/NTA now stands at 1.128 similar to previous value but a little lower. All fundamentals considered, ACG still represents good value with good growth potential.
Recommendation: Buy up to 20c.
Disclaimer: I own ACG stocks.
Company Brief - PLD and VHL
VHL - Virax Holdings
As of 23 May, VHl has 107m shares, with cash at Dec 06 at $1.416m. In the Dec half year, operation cash outflow was $2.9m. According to 9 Nov 06, the rights issue raised $2.36m - this is not accounted for in the first half year account.
Assuming an operations cash burn of $2.8m a year, without other significant events, The remaining cash at Jun 07 will be around $1m. This infer a cash based NTA of 0.9 cents. The current price of 13 cents makes P/NTA of 14 which is relatively high.
Taking into account of the $1m payment from Transgene, the P/NTA is
about 7 which is still high but worth looking. The thing going for VHL
is the progress from the Transgene company - upon successful milestones
may release further licence payments. VHL's own lead product is
starting Ph II with another at PhII/Ib.
It is certainly worthwhile to keep an eye on VHL to the end of 2007. The price of 13 is high, but worth serious consideration if it levels at 7cents.
PLD - Portland Orthopaedics
Full approval was granted to PLD for the M-Cor primary hip replacement and use of related instrumentation by the TGA in Aust. This product status has been factored into previous analysis (not blogged yet) - so the product rating remain the same. However, the share price has dropped significantly with no strong reasons apart from PLD taking over distribution responsibilities. The P/NTA stands at 2.85 and is worth buying.
Dislaimer: I own stocks in PLD. I was but no longer a holder of VHL stock.
As of 23 May, VHl has 107m shares, with cash at Dec 06 at $1.416m. In the Dec half year, operation cash outflow was $2.9m. According to 9 Nov 06, the rights issue raised $2.36m - this is not accounted for in the first half year account.
Assuming an operations cash burn of $2.8m a year, without other significant events, The remaining cash at Jun 07 will be around $1m. This infer a cash based NTA of 0.9 cents. The current price of 13 cents makes P/NTA of 14 which is relatively high.
Taking into account of the $1m payment from Transgene, the P/NTA is
about 7 which is still high but worth looking. The thing going for VHL
is the progress from the Transgene company - upon successful milestones
may release further licence payments. VHL's own lead product is
starting Ph II with another at PhII/Ib.
It is certainly worthwhile to keep an eye on VHL to the end of 2007. The price of 13 is high, but worth serious consideration if it levels at 7cents.
PLD - Portland Orthopaedics
Full approval was granted to PLD for the M-Cor primary hip replacement and use of related instrumentation by the TGA in Aust. This product status has been factored into previous analysis (not blogged yet) - so the product rating remain the same. However, the share price has dropped significantly with no strong reasons apart from PLD taking over distribution responsibilities. The P/NTA stands at 2.85 and is worth buying.
Dislaimer: I own stocks in PLD. I was but no longer a holder of VHL stock.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
